Basel III: The impact of an increase in regulation in a recession framework

Abstract

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and EconomicsThis work project aims to assess the impact of Basel III’s proposal in the Portuguese banking sector, a sector experiencing particularly difficult times in a distressed country. The industry is represented by its three largest quoted banking groups, two of them under government intervention. The impact is evaluated through the estimation of the banks’ capital ratios through Basel III’s expected implementation calendar, through the analysis of the banks’ capital needs based on their publicly available information and industry research. The impact will vary depending on the bank; on average, it will result in a decrease in banks’ excess capital. Banks will have difficulties to comply if state-owned CoCos are not considered part of regulatory capital. The new standards will penalize those banks with a recent history of poor performance, and decrease the difference between regulatory and equity capital

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