This is a report on Oregon\u27s changing demographics in 2000

Hough, George C., Jr.

Portland State University. Population Research Center

English

PDXScholar (Portland State University)

Portland State University PDXScholar Oregon Population Estimates and Reports Population Research Center 7-2000 Oregon's Changing Demographics 2000 George C. Hough Jr. Portland State University Portland State University. Population Research Center Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/populationreports  Part of the Urban Studies and Planning Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits you. Recommended Citation Hough, George C. Jr. and Portland State University. Population Research Center, "Oregon's Changing Demographics 2000" (2000). Oregon Population Estimates and Reports. 50. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/populationreports/50 This Report is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Oregon Population Estimates and Reports by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: pdxscholar@pdx.edu. .---Males I I I I Age I I I ~. I I I I I I I I I I I -1 50,000 -1 00,000 Oregon's Changing Demographics 2000 I I < fl .. -50,000 Age Distribution Oregon 1990 and 2010 I I 85 + 80 -84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35. 39 30-34 25-29 20·24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 Population ~ I I I I . 50,000 George C. Hough Jr., Ph.D. Population Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Portland State University Hough@pdx.edu www.upa.pdx.edu/CPRC/ Females I I 02010 1990 I i I I I I I ' I I I I I I I I 100,000 150,000 Presented at the 2000 Summer Legislative Leadership Institute, Oregon 's Transition: The Dynamics of a Changing Population and Economy, Western Oregon University, Monmouth, Oregon, July 26-28, 2000. ... --' -...... ; -~ ..... ..... '""" -"""' ..... ---' --POPULATION GROWTH => Oregon reached a population of 1 million during the 1930s, added another million by 1970, and a third million by the early 1990s, and is expected to add almost another million people by the year 2010 . =>Since 1970, Oregon's Population has increased from 2.091 million to 3.301 million in 1999, an increase of 5 8 percent. =>Between 1990 and 2010 we expect the population to grow from 2.842 million to 3.857 million, an increase of 36 percent. Between 2000 and 2010 we expect the population to increase from 3.351 million to 3.857 million, an increase of 15 percent. => Population has been increasing by about 50,000 per year recently, or 1.9 percent annually (1 percent for the U.S.). =>With the exception of the early to mid-1980's, migration to the state has averaged about a net 40,000 persons per year. => Natural increase (births minus deaths) accounts for about one-third and net migration for two-thirds of Oregon's growth. =>We anticipate a similar volume of net migration during the latter-half of the 1990s, and a decline in migration during the first decade of the next century based upon a flattening in the increase of state-to-state migration over successive decades, and also due to the general aging of the population. t ( l ( [ l l [ [ ( l l t l Population of Oregon 1850 to 2010 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 +--------------------------------< a i :; 2,000,000 a. 0 Q. 1,500,000 1,000,000 -+----------------------< 500,000 0 I I FT-• '""'"'' l l l 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2010 Decade l [ 100,000 80,000 60,000 & 40,000 c CV .c u ~ ::. 20,000 0 -20,000 Total Change in Oregon 1960-61to1998-99 ~-------------------------~------·--------------. ··------·--------~ ..... --..... ..... ..... .... --.... ..... ~ 961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 -r 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981Li1083 19851I1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 199~ ...... -40,000 L.. -------------... ---·----· -----·---· -----------··-----------Ending Year 80,000 ---Cl) Cl c: 60,000 40,000 ~ 20,000 -0 .. c: GI c: 0 0. E 0 u 0 -20,000 -40,000 r--_ ------ n.n h961 1963 ....._:::_ - 1965 Components of Change Oregon 1960-61to1998-99 j c:=J Natural Increase c:=J Net Migration -Births _,._Deaths j -~ i-1 I-, 1..-1HH....._ 1967 1969 1971 - f....J L' i--I "• 1..--L.-" ...... 1973 1975 1977 -i...- 1979 -......... --~ --.._ --.._-------------1~HHHN._ n 1981 1M3 1985 I I 1987 1989 1991 1993 -60,000 L -----------------Ending Year ---- I. I _.. ~ 1-.1 .__. ~ .._ 1995 1997 199~ --.I ....! -' .... ,....,j ;...i ...,I ..J -..,J -...; -...... ~ ....: """' ...., GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION => During the period 1970 to 1990, the distribution of the population among the three major regions of the state (Portland tri-county SMSA, the remainder of Western Oregon, and Oregon east of the Cascade Mountain Range) remained remarkably stable. =>We expect the state's population distribution across these three major geographic regions to change little over the next twenty years. OREGON'S FOUR REGIONS OF DIFFERENT POPULATION GROWTH => Negligible growth in area south of the Columbia River and east of the Cascades (Sherman, Gilliam, and Wheeler); in Clatsop at the mouth of the Columbia; and Harney. => Slow growth in eastern region; and along the Oregon coast and across the southern region to Lake. => Moderate growth in the Willamette Valley and Crook. =>More rapid growth in northeast Willamette Valley (Washington and Yamhill), central region (Deschutes and Jefferson), and southwestern comer (Curry). 2010 2000 Cl) ~ 1990 (.) Cl) 0 1980 1970 Geographic Distribution of Oregon 1970 to 2010 ~483,859 ~--~----------45.5% 11.718,814 ~l.-------------------------------41.!if1,s11.oos I ~~429,604 45.8% I 1.525,697 t=====-=-~~~~~~ -41.8% 11.402,290 ~~364,904 45.8% 11.303,129 t====-~~~~~ -41.3% 11.174,291 I 46.7% j 1.228.802 39.9% I 1.050,367 -.. 272,300 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 44.9% j 938,410 42.1% I sso,675 800,000 1,000,000 Population 1,200,000 Oregon East of the Cascades j D Remainder of Western Oregon] D Portland Metropolitan Area 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 --..,J -..,J ...J "'""' -i """" .,,,J ...i ..... -...... ..... ...... ..,J ...J -POPULATION RACIAL/ETHNIC COMPOSITION =>Oregon is one of the least racially/ethnically diverse states in the nation. => Persons of Hispanic origin and Asian and Pacific Islanders have increased their representation in the state's population much more so than either Blacks, or American Indians and Alaska natives . =>The pace of diversification of the state's population will be determined by the influx of immigrants (legal and illegal) into the U.S. and into the state. => Differential fertility levels will also have a significant impact on increases in racial and ethnic diversity, particularly with regard to persons of Hispanic origin. => Oregon is expected to remain one of the nation's least racially and ethnically diverse states for the foreseeable future . 3,500,000 3,000,000 g 2,500,000 ~ ns :; 0. 0 ~ 2,000,000 c ns 0. "' x C: 1,500,000 0 z s ~ 1,000,000 500,000 0 2,594,188 90.8% 71,318 47,402 40,825 I 2.5% 1.4% 1990 CJ White Non-Hispanic OAsian & Pacific Islander Population by Race/Ethnicity Oregon 1990 and 2010 114,192 79,904 4.0% Decade •Black O Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 3,253,348 278,711 85.5% 7.3% 154,681 4.1% 59,668 1.6% 2010 OAmerican Indian, Eskimo & Aleut I 300,000 250,000 I/) c 0 +; .!! ::I 0. 200,000 £ c ·c;, ·.::: 0 CJ 150,000 ·2 ns 0. .~ :::c -0 c ns 100,000 Cl> :!:::: .c ~ c 0 50,000 z 0 -' --' --..... .,..J ....... :...i -l...i -=' --..I -t.i -,_j -POPULATION AGE COMPOSITION ~ The age composition of the Oregon population is expected to change noticeably in the next 20 years. => Three population dynamics, present in the current age structure, are driving these changes. => The aging of the "baby boom" generation. => The low levels of fertility since the early 1970s. => The rapid decline in mortality rates since the early 1970s for persons above age 50 . => The consequences of this demographic momentum for the age composition of the population are: => A larger proportion of the population will be in the elderly age groups, particularly the "oldest old" (85 years of age and over). => A smaller proportion of the population will consist of children and young adults. => Factors which will partially alleviate the "graying" of the population are: => Heavy in-migration to the state. => In-migration of sizable numbers of foreign-born population with fertility rates considerably higher than those of the current Oregon population. => The age structure of the Hispanic origin population for 1990 and 2010 presents a strikingly different set of population dynamics than the population as a whole. OREGON'S ELDERLY MIGRANTS => Net Migration of the Elderly has the biggest impact on several counties: Deschutes, Curry, and Josephine. More than 20 percent of the 65+ population moved into these counties in the previous 10 years. => Other counties have an increasing elderly proportion of their population because younger persons leave: Wheeler, Gilliam, Baker, and Wallowa. => Elderly migration also creates additional demands for health and social services. L L L ( L. ( [ L L Males Age -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 [ L Age Distribution Oregon 1990 85 + 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15 -19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 Population L l L L L. ( L [ Females 50,000 100,000 150,000 L [._"_ c: _ [ [_ [ [ l Males Age -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 L ( L L Hispanic Origin Age Distribution Oregon 1990 50-54 --45-49 --40-44 --35-39 --30-34 --25-29 --20-24 --15-19 --10-14 - 5-9 - 0-4 -2,000 0 2,000 Population L L L [ L_ L L Females 4,000 6,000 8,000 ----Males I I I Age I I I I -150,000 -100,000 I ... -50,000 Age Distribution Oregon 1990 and 2010 I I I 85 + 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15 -19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 Population I -1 Females I I I C2010 1990 1 I I I I I I I , I '· I I 50,000 100,000 150,000 -.. ---Males I I I I I Age I I I I I I I I I I I I I I -15,000 -10,000 Hispanic Origin Age Distribution Oregon 1990 and 2010 - I I -5,000 -!~+ sol 84 I ~5-79 I 70 _ 74 65-69 60 -64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15 -19 10-14 5-9 0-4 0 Population I I I I " -1 Females I I 02010 1990 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 5,000 10,000 15,000 .... -...i -' --' -....I ....i ....i ...., .... ---....i ~ -lo.I ;..J .... ....I HOUSEHOLD AND FAMILY COMPOSITION => Fifty percent of all children living in a single-parent household live below the poverty level. => Similarly, among families with children under 18, the percentage of One-parent families tripled between 1960 and 1990. In 1990, 24 percent of families with children under 18 were single-parent families. => When compared to all family types, single-parent families comprise 11.3 percent. As the "baby-boom" ages, many previously married-couple families with children under 18 have been replaced by "empty nesters." Another trend fueling smaller family size is the growth in DINKS (dual-income-no-kids) family households . => During the 1970s, households in Oregon increased at nearly twice the rate of population growth . =>The major reason for the growth in households during the 1970s was the "coming of age" of the "baby-boom" generation . => When compared to all household types, single-parent households represented only 3.6 percent of all households in Oregon in 1960 and only 7.7 percent in 1990. Families without children have remained stable at about 36 percent of all households in Oregon from 1960 to 1990. During the 1970s, the number of non-family households doubled in Oregon. As a consequence, the number of non-family households in 1990 is almost identical to the number of Oregon family households with children under 18 present. Analogously, the percentage of Oregon family households with children under 18 present slipped from 4 7 percent of all Oregon households in 1960 to 32 percent in 1990. => During recent decades, household growth in Oregon exceeded population growth. Growth rates will converge in the future. I/) 8. ~ "'C 0 .c GI I/) :l 0 :I: ~ E cu IL .... 0 .... 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 ~ 400,000 E ::J z 200,000 0 Family and Household Types Oregon 1960 to 1990 Non-Family Households Total Families with No Children Under 18 DTotal Families with Children Under 18 MC = Married Couple, SP = Single Parent 198,326 35. 5% ~"··C··, "'I 1~=1 261,486 46.8% 41.9% 43.3%-MC 37.1%-MC 3.6%-SP 4.7%-SP 1960 1970 352.947 I 35.6% 28.6%-MC 7.0%-SP 1980 Decade I 353.611 32.0% 24.4%-MC 7.7%-SP 1990 ..... ----:.... ...I ....I -._,j .... -..I ..., -.I .... ~ -.J The Relationship Between Education and Income => Income increases with education. The most noticeable gains occur for persons with college, graduate or professional degrees. => The percentage of adult Oregonians (ages 25 and over) with at least a high school degree has increased by nearly ten percentage points from 81.5% in 1990 to 90.6% in 1998. Additionally, the percentage with a high school degree does not vary by geographic region. The percentage of adults with a high school degree does vary by race/ethnicity with Blacks and Native Americans lagging behind by 6 percentage points; Hispanics/Latinos are the least likely to have completed high school (70% in 1998), although they are rapidly gaining high school diplomas . => The percentage of adult Oregonians (ages 25 and over) with at least an·associate degree has increased by nearly ten percentage points from 27 .5% in 1990 to 37% in 1998. However, the percentage varies by region with the Northeastern and Southeastern county regions lagging behind the state average both in terms of their overall percentages as well as gains during the 1990s. The Portland metro counties and the Willamette Valley region have the highest percentages and gains during the 1990s. The North Coast, Southern, Mid-Columbia and Central regions show intermediate percentages and strong growth during the decade. The percentage with an associate degree also varies by race/ethnicity with Asians having the highest levels and gains. Once again, blacks and Hispanics have the lowest percentages, although Hispanics have shown strong gains during the 1990s. => The percentage of adult Oregonians (ages 25 and over) with at least a baccalaureate degree has increased by almost ten percentage points from 20.6% in 1990 to 29% in 1998. Once again, the North Coast, Southern, Mid-Columbia, and Eastern County regions have the lowest levels and gains in adults with college degrees. College education varies by race/ethnicity with Asians having the highest percentages and largest gains. Blacks, Native Americans and Hispanics have the lowest levels and the smallest gains. => The regions and the race/ethnic groups with the lowest levels of education also ...J exhibit the lowest levels of household income, as well as smaller gains during the decade. ~ ...... Annual Average Income by Educational Attainment and Work Status: 1989 $50,000 --------$45,000 $40,000 $35,000 QI 8 (J $30,000 .E G> Cl C! $25,000 G> > <( iii $20,000 ::s c: c: <( $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Less than 9th grade 9th to 12th grade, High school Some college or Bachelor's Graduate or professional I Full & Part Time no diploma graduate (GED) associate degree degree degree OFullTime 1 $19,863 Part Time I $8,869 $21,191 $23,080 I $26,216 $35,244 $48,435 $28,063 $9,410 $10,894 $11, 166 $16,364 $28,237 $12,745 OTotal $13,585 $14,734 $17,914 I $19,993 $27,901 $40,211 $21,477 ..... c: Cll t.> ... Cll Q.. 100.0% 1 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Percentage of Oregonians 25 and older with at Least a High School Degree by Region, 1990 and 1998 I 01990 01998 North Coast Metro Willamette Southern Mid-Central Southeast Northeast (Clatsop, (Clackamas, Valley (Coos, Columbia (Crook, (Grant, (Baker, Columbia, Multnomah, (Benton, Curry, (Gilliam, Deschutes, Harney, Malheur, Lincoln, Washington, Lane, Linn, Douglas, Hood River, Jefferson) Klamath, Union, Tillamook) Yamhill) Marion, Jackson, Morrow, Lake) Wallowa) Polk) Josephine) Sherman, Umatilla, Wasco, Wheeler) Oregon 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% North Coast (Clatsop, Columbia, Lincoln, Tillamook) Percentage of Oregonians 25 and older with at Least an Associate Degree by Region, 1990 and 1998 -------·-·-----·---01990 1998 Metro Willamette Southern Mid-Columbia Central Southeast (Clackamas, Valley (Coos, Curry, (Gilliam, (Crook, (Grant, Multnomah, (Benton, Douglas, Hood River, Deschutes, Harney, Washington, Lane, Linn, Jackson, Morrow, Jefferson) Klamath, Yamhill) Marion, Polk) Josephine) Sherman, Lake) Umatilla, Wasco, Wheeler) Northeast Oregon (Baker, Malheur, Union, Wallowa) 40% I 35% 30% 25% ... c: Cl) ~ 20% Cl) a.. 15% 10% 5% 0% Percentage of Oregonians 25 and older with at Least a Bacccalaureate Degree by Region, 1990 and 1998 I 01990 Cl 1998 North Coast Metro Willamette Southern Mid-Central Southeast Northeast (Clatsop, (Clackamas, Valley (Coos, Curry, Columbia (Crook. (Grant, (Baker, Columbia, Multnomah, (Benton, Douglas, (Gilliam, Deschutes, Harney, Malheur, Lincoln, Washington, Lane, Linn, Jackson, Hood River, Jefferson) Klamath, Union, Tillamook) Yamhill) Marion, Polk) Josephine) Morrow, Lake) Wallowa) Sherman, Umatilla, Wasco, Wheeler) Oregon 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% c 50.0% Cl) ~ ~ 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0 High School 1990 I Iii High School 1998 I OAssociate 1990 l 0 Associate 1998 I t•College 1990 0 College 1998 I Percent of Oregonians 25 and Older by Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity, 1990 and 1998 White Non-Hispanic I Black I American Indian & Asian & Pacific Islander Alsaka Native 82.6% I 75.0% 71.0% 79.4% 91.8% 83.8% 84.5% 91.6% 27.8% I 21.2% 15.9% 41.1% 37.1% I 26.9% 35.5% 56.0% J 20.9% ! 15.2% 8.3% 32.3% 29.3% I 12.3% 19.1% 47.2% Hispanic/Latino 53. 0% 69.5% 15.3% 28. 7% 10.1% 16.4% $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 Cll E $30,000 0 u .E "O 0 .c Cll "' :::i 0 :I: c Cll $25,000 $20,000 :g $15,000 :E $10,000 $5,000 $0 North Coast (Clatsop, Columbia, Lincoln, Tillamook) Median Household Income by Region, 1989 and 1997 - 37% Metro (Clackamas, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill) Willamette Valley (Benton, Lane, Linn, Marion, Polk) Southern (Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine) Mid-Columbia (Gilliam, Hood River, Morrow, Sherman, Umatilla, Wasco, Wheeler) Central (Crook, Deschutes, Jefferson) Southeast (Grant, Harney, Klamath, Lake) Northeast (Baker, Malheur, Union, Wallowa) Oregon Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1997 $45,000 ,----------------·-----· ---·------------, I 01989 69% []1997 $40,000 I 37% I -• 37% liiii $35,000 Q) E $30,000 0 CJ .E I I' -12% -16% ~ $25,000 .c I I -18% Q) Cl) ::s ~ $20,000 c I'll :0 ~ $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 White Non-Hispanic Black American Indian, Asian & Pacific I Hispanic/Latino I Total I Alaska Native Islander lo 1989 j $27,670 ! $18,432 $21,954 $25, 120 I $21,503 I $27,250 IEJ 1991 I $38,032 $21,667 $24,615 $42,500 I $24,868 $37,208 

Oregon\u27s Changing Demographics 2000

https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1051&amp;context=populationreports

Oregon\u27s Changing Demographics 2000

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

PDXScholar (Portland State University)