Comparison of Damage from Hydrocode Simulations of an Asteroid Airburst or Impact on Land, in Deep, or in Shallow Water

Abstract

If an asteroid is discovered to be on a collision course with Earth and there is insufficient time for a deflection effort to make it miss Earth completely, should it be redirected to a land or ocean impact? While distance from densely populated areas should obviously be maximized, the differing ability of air blast, seismic waves, and tsunami waves to cause damage at distance does not make the choice between land and ocean impacts an immediately obvious one. More broadly this work is a step towards improving damage models from asteroid impacts. This extended abstract follows the hypothetical scenario of the 2017 IAA Planetary Defense Conference where a 100-250m diameter asteroid is on a potential impact course with Earth. A hydrocode was used to simulate impacts into the most sparsely populated areas along the eastern end of the hypothetical impact corridor- specifically in the Gobi Desert, in the shallow waters of the Sea of Japan, and in the deep waters of the Japan Trench in the Pacific Ocean