Kidoido, Michael M.

Poole, Elizabeth J.

Randolph, Thomas F.

CGSpace

Embracing theory of changeTom Randolph, Jane Poole and Michael KidoidoILRI Institute Planning Meeting4-7 October 2016What is this talk about Theory of Change?• Accountability and need to explain how our activities will lead to the impact we want• We used to use logical framework (logframes)– Focus on activities and outputs with leaps of faith to objectives and goals• Theory of Change framework adopted by CGIAR – More emphasis on how outputs will translate into impact– Understanding how change will happen and assumptions we are making– Being mainstreamed for M&E and learning Learn to talk the ToC !! Theory ?!??!  Isn’t that what science is about: explaining cause & effect??Health warning• No agreed standard interpretation or presentation An art form – as many different interpretations as there are people working with ToC Focus on the general spirit, not on the details• Needs to explain:1. Our cause-effect logic2. Our responsibility3. How change happens at all levelsAt the Core: Our theory of why it will work(IBLI example)Research Economic principles +Remote sensingOutputIndex-based Insurance conceptOutcomeInclusive commercial insurance productOutcomePoor livestock keepers are clientsDevelopment OutcomeHigher and more stable incomeImpactStronger resilience for poor cattle keepersThe GOALA possible SOLUTIONResearch Economic principles +Remote sensingOutputIndex-based Insurance conceptOutcomeInclusive commercial insurance productOutcomePoor livestock keepers are clientsDevelopment OutcomeHigher and more stable incomeImpactStronger resilience for poor cattle keepersThe GOALA possible SOLUTIONAt the Core: Our theory of why it will work(IBLI example)Research Economic principles +Remote sensingOutputIndex-based Insurance conceptOutcomeInclusive commercial insurance productOutcomePoor livestock keepers are clientsDevelopment OutcomeHigher and more stable incomeImpactStronger resilience for poor cattle keepers• What evidence supports this theory?• If evidence is weak, what assumptions are we making?Economic simulation modelingRole of income smoothing in poverty studiesPastoralists perceive benefits and are willing to pay repeatedlyProduct can be profitable for commercial companiesPay-outs effectively smooth incomeAt the Core: Our theory of why it will work(IBLI example)Sphere of InterestSphere of InfluenceSphere of Control Setting it in an Impact Pathway: How? Who?ResearchEconomic principles +Remote sensingOutputIndex-based Insurance conceptResearch OutcomeInclusive commercial insurance product- Pilot- At scaleDevelopment OutcomePoor livestock keepers are clients- Pilot- At scaleDevelopment OutcomeHigher and more stable incomeImpactStronger resilience for poor cattle keepersSphere of InterestMEL for Development EffectivenessSphere of InfluenceMEL for Research Use & EffectivenessSphere of Control MEL for Research Relevance & QualitySTAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENTSDGsSub-IDOs, IDOs, SLOsChanges in policies and institutionsForesight & Initial stakeholder engagementResearch, innovations & servicesChanges in capacity (KAS) & aspirations Changes in practice Direct/ indirect benefitsImproved well-being & eco-system healthRapid assessment and learning loops Credit: Tonya Scheutz, Indicators Task ForceHighlighting how change will happenStrong growth systems Fragile growth systems  High growth with externalitiesCorporate ServicesPeople & Organizational DevelopmentCommunications and Knowledge ManagementBusiness DevelopmentCapacity DevelopmentIntellectual Property / LegalRegional RepresentationResearch MethodsSustainable Livestock Systems Policy, Value Chains and Livelihoods BECAImpact at Scale Livestock Genetics Feed and Forages Development Animal and Human Health An initial ILRI theory of change Sphere of control                                                  Sphere of influence Sphere of interest                           .SO3: Increased capacities SO1: Improved Practices  SO2: Increased investment What we do… Goals (Impacts) Outcomes  Improved Food & Nutrition Security Reduced Poverty Develop, test, adapt and promote science-cased practices; Provide compelling evidence in ways that persuade decision makers; increase capacity among ILRI key stakeholders and the institution itselfAssumptions (Critical success factors) • Science is right• ILRI is able to influence decision makers • ILRI grows capacity• ILRI is fit for purpose • ILRI is able to secure sustainable funding SustainabilityIncreased productivityIncreased resilienceImproved food safetyIncreased income & employmentIDOsLivestock CRP Flagship ToCWhy is it important for us to talk the ToC?• Being applied to guide our planning at various levels: ILRI, programs, CRPs• Makes us keep an eye on impact and how it will be achieved• Plays to our training as scientists– Emphasizes the role of evidence– Challenge our assumptions• Can make us more convinced ….. and more convincing!Extracted from:Strategic overview of CGIAR Research programs Part I. Theories of Change and Impact Pathways (December 2012), ISPCThis presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.better lives through livestockilri.orgILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions to the CGIAR system

Embracing Theory of Change

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Embracing Theory of Change

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