Duong Nam Ha

Hamza, K.

Lapar, Ma. Lucila

Nguyen Thi Duong Nga

Nguyen Thi Thu Huyen

Ninh Xuan Trung

Pham Van Hung

Rich, Karl M.

Tran Van Long

Unger, Fred

Vu Khac Xuan

CGSpace

 Using system dynamics for ex-ante impact assessment of food safety policies in pig value chains Rich, K.M.; Thu Huyen, N.T.; Nam Ha, D.; Duong Nga, N.T.; Xuan, V.K.; Trung, N.X.; Van Long, T.; Van Hung, P.; Unger, F.; Hamza, K.; Lapar, L.   Karl M. Rich, Ph.D.  Lab 863 Ltd. University of New England Safe Pork conference, Porto, Portugal 7-10 September 2015 What is system dynamics? • “System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to policy analysis and design.  It applies to dynamic problems arising in complex social, economic, or ecological systems  • Literally any dynamic systems are characterized by interdependence, mutual interaction, information feedback, and circular causality” • It provides a methodology for studying complex dynamic systems that include nonlinearities, delays, and feedback loops. • System dynamics is currently applied in economics, public policy, environmental studies, defense, commodity cycles, management, etc.   Source: System Dynamics Society Why system dynamics for value chains? • A major gap in value chain (VC) analysis: understanding the impact of VC investments – The general performance of a chain – The ability to evaluate ex-ante between different (intervention) options  • Value chain analysis does a very nice job of describing the chain and things that influence it.  But it is less good on measurement, e.g. effects of potential interventions (e.g. reduced pathogen loads versus investment)  Why system dynamics for value chains? • An example: suppose tomorrow you were given US$20 million to improve an existing agricultural value chain  • Given the tools you have so far, could you evaluate how best to use that money? – Where to invest, which node, scope of investment, how long it may take   Why system dynamics for pig value chains? • To assess dynamic impacts of interventions over time  – Effects on markets – Effects on adoption – Effects on sustainability  • To operationalize value chain analysis as a tool for impact assessment rather than just for diagnostics.  • It provides the ability to use interface as communication platform for dissemination.   SD concepts • Stocks (accumulation) • Flows (change overtime – rate/time unit) • Feedback loops (circular causality) • Delays  A generic value chain Source: Rich, Rich, and Hamza (2015) A generic agricultural value chain A generic value chain Source: Rich, Rich, and Hamza (2015) A generic agricultural value chain, with different interventions to be simulated ex-ante Diagrammatic structure of the pig value chain: green are market dynamics, pink are intervention possibilities Production module Production module Age cohorts, separated by region and production system Production module Sales channels for pigs Production module Interventions to reduce death rate at farm level (these add costs also – not shown here) Demand Demand Productivity effect from healthier pigs Demand Productivity effect from healthier pigs Income effects on consumers: healthier consumers spend more on all goods, including pork Demand Productivity effect from healthier pigs Income effects on consumers: healthier consumers spend more on  all goods, including pork But interventions come at higher compliance costs at slaughterhouse – higher prices Demand Productivity effect from healthier pigs Income effects on consumers: healthier consumers spend more on  all goods, including pork But interventions come at higher compliance costs at slaughterhouse – higher prices What are the tradeoffs between the benefits of interventions and their costs over time, taking into account market adjustments? Model interface in iThink Model interface in iThink: baseline Death rate reduction % increase in pig weight Weeks for intervention  Additional weekly costs at farm level % increase in slaughterhouse margin % increase in income from better health % increase in income Model interface in iThink: sample scenario % increase in slaughterhouse margin % increase in pig weight Death rate reduction Weeks for intervention  Additional weekly costs at farm level % increase in income from better health % increase in income Where are we so far? • Baseline model parameterized in iThink based on value chain survey  • Validation of data in process – a few data inconsistencies to be resolved   What do we need? • Definition of intervention options – critical need  • Costs: relatively straightforward   • Benefits: more difficult translating technical impacts into economic terms – Effects of disease reduction into production gains? – Effects of pathogen reduction into health gains?  Point from Outline text  Thank you! Acknowledgement: • CRP L & F • ACIAR, PigRISK • VNUA • HSPH   

Using system dynamics for ex-ante impact assessment of food safety policies in pig value chains

https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstream/10568/71011/1/SD%20approach%20to%20ex-ante%20assessment%20of%20food%20safety%20policies.pdf

Using system dynamics for ex-ante impact assessment of food safety policies in pig value chains

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