Tarawali, Shirley A.

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Livestock: the global contextShirley Tarawali, Assistant Director General, ILRI, KenyaLivestock advocacy and communications conveningAddis Ababa, Ethiopia 10 – 12 November 2015Animal source foods:  5 of 6 highest value global commodities (total value of these five: US Int $ 715 billion) FAOSTAT 2015(values for 2013)05001000150020002500050100150200250Production (MT) millionsNet production value (Int $) billionnet production value (Int $) billion production (MT)Cow milk has overtaken riceDrivers of change: populationAnticipated change 2013 – 2050Asia: +20%Africa: +113%Europe: -4% 2015 GDP growth forecastPercentage urban, 2014Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed01002003004005006007008001980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050Million metric tonnesdevelopingdevelopeddeveloping at sameper cap. asdeveloped(hypothetical)Africa’s food import bill (2013): US $ 44 billionAbout one fifth is livestock (highest after cereals)% growth in demand for livestock products2000 - 20307050100150200E.Asia PacificChinaSouth AsiaSSAHigh incomeBeef020406080100120140160180E.Asia PacificChinaSouth AsiaSSAHigh incomePork0100200300400500600700800E.Asia PacificChinaSouth AsiaSSAHigh incomePoultry020406080100120140160E.Asia PacificChinaSouth AsiaSSAHigh incomeMilkFAO, 2011Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030What’s special about animal/smallholder food?•90% of animal products are produced  and consumed in the same country or region•Most are produced by smallholders•Over 70% of livestock productsare sold ‘informally’•Almost 1 billion rely on livestock for livelihoods•43% of the agricultural workforceis femaleDemand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met – the only question is howScenario #1Meeting livestock demand byimporting livestock productsScenario #2Meeting livestock demand byimporting livestock industrial production know-howScenario #3Meeting livestock demand bytransforming smallholder livestock systemsPolicy conversations…………..the Sustainable Development Goals………….……………livestock ‘bads’ ……………and confusing messages………………….Livestock and inclusive, sustainable economic growth Livestock and equitable livelihoodsAnimal source foods for nutrition and healthLivestock and sustainable ecosystemsChallenges and opportunities• Communicating:• Diversity• Complexity• Balancing messages• ‘goods’• ‘bads’• Evidence based; not defensive• Opportunities (transition)Sustainable animal food systems are a must• Productivity and efficiency:– Sufficient food with lower environmental foot print: Animal health, genetics, feeding• Animal source foods:– Safe, not wasted and consumed in appropriate quantities• Emerging challenges:– Zoonotic diseases– Anti-Microbial ResistanceThe presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.better lives through livestockilri.org

Livestock: The global context

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Livestock: The global context

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