Bett, Bernard K.

Boeckel, Thomas P. van

Cinardi, G.

Conchedda, G.

Gilbert, M.

Grace, Delia

Macleod, M.

Robinson, Timothy P.

Wint, W.

CGSpace

 The global livestock sector: Trends, drivers and implications for society, health and the environment   Science with Impact – Annual Conference 2015 – BSAS/AVTRW/WPSA Binks Building, University of Chester, 14-15 April 2015 Timothy Robinson,  William Wint, Giulia Conchedda, Giuseppina Cinardi, Thomas Van Boeckel, Michael Macleod, Bernard Bett, Delia Grace & Marius Gilbert Overview • The global livestock sector • Trends and drivers • Mapping livestock distributions and production systems • Livestock and livelihoods • Livestock, health and nutrition • Livestock and the environment • Bringing it all together:    Animal health and greenhouse gas emissions The global livestock sector • Livestock numbers (FAOSTAT 2012) • 1.8 billion cattle and buffalo • 2.5 billion sheep and goats • 1.5 billion pigs • 30.6 billion poultry • Sector  accounts for 30% of the land surface  • 70% of all agricultural land • 8% of human water use The global livestock sector Health  and nutrition Equity and growth Climate and natural resource use Livestock production The global livestock sector Policies and institutional change Economic growth Trade & marketing Changing  diets Energy prices Health  and nutrition Equity and growth Livestock production Climate and natural resource use • Demographic and social drivers • Population: + 32% or 9.6 billion people by 2050 • Income growth: + 2% per year by 2050 • Urbanization: 70% will live in cities by 2050 ➜ Growth in demand for animal source foods • + 70% by 2050 • + 200 million tonnes of meat ➜ Structural changes in the livestock sector • Shift from ruminant to monogastric • Intensification of production ➜ Impinges on global public goods • Poverty and growth • Health and nutrition • Climate and natural resources • Integrated approach to socially desirable livestock sector development • Need reliable data and information to guide policy The changing livestock sector Livestock to 2030 – demand growth Consumption of Animal Source Foods is increasing faster in developing countries than in developed countries Millions of tonnes Year Developed Developing Disaggregating demand growth Growth in poultry consumption in China to 2030 Demand growth attributable to population growth Demand growth attributable to changing consumption patterns Demand growth as a function of both Demand in 2000 Implications for production • Rural population growth → EXPANSION • Urban population growth • Increasing wealth • Changing consumption patterns → INTENSIFICATION Livestock distribution and production Livestock distribution  modelling Livestock maps by production system Livestock production estimates Global livestock maps Production systems modelling Sub-national  Livestock data Herd / production  modelling Data collection, cleaning  and geo-registration Global distribution of pigs Source: Robinson et al. (2014) Pigs per square kilometre (2006) Mapped based on rural population Difference (total – extensive) % backyard % intensive Monogastric production systems Livestock distribution Extensive production Intensive production Chicken systems Output / input ratio (log kg-1 stock-1 year-1)  Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year) From World Bank data  Source: Gilbert et al. (under review) Chicken systems Log per-capita GDP (US$/person/year) From World Bank data  Proportion of extensively raised  chickens  Source: Gilbert et al. (under review) Chicken systems Extensive chicken production  Intensive chicken production  Source: Gilbert et al. (under review) http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org The global livestock sector Health  and nutrition Equity and growth Climate and natural resource use Livestock production Livestock and livelihoods • Value of livestock sector c. $1.4 trillion • Account for 40% of agricultural GDP • Employs 1.3 billion people • Provides 17% of calories and 26% of protein, globally • Provides valuable micronutrients to the poor • Provides livelihoods for 800 million poor small-holders • Contribute nutrients and traction for mixed farming • Utilises primary production of no direct value for human consumption • Serves as a bank, and insurance against hard times (e.g. drought) Otte et al. (2013) AfriPop Population Rural population Agricultural population Poor farmers Livestock keepers Poor livestock keepers Livestock and livelihoods Source: Robinson et al. (2011) Poor Livestock Keepers National, rural poverty lines Livestock and livelihoods Livestock, health and nutrition • Nutrition • Positive: Hunger, malnutrition, stunting, cognitive impairment • Negative: Obesity and associated health risks • Diseases • Food-borne diseases • 39% OIE diseases are zoonotic • Aflatoxin poisoning • Antimicrobial resistance • Poverty • Poor people are less healthy • Livestock contribute to livelihoods and resilience • Economic losses from endemic diseases of production • Climate change • Reduced food security • Heat waves, floods and droughts • Changing VBD risks Nutrition: the double-edged sword Livestock are key to both sides • Over one third of all adults across the world – 1.46 billion people – are obese or overweight • Between 1980 and 2008, the numbers of people affected in the developing world more than tripled, from 250 million to 904 million • Diets are changing with income rises in developing countries, shifting from starch to meat, milk, fats and sugar, fruit and vegetables • We live in a world more than with 800 million hungry and 165 million stunted children • Animal-Source Foods provide 17% of calories and 26% of protein • Animal-Source Foods provide valuable micronutrients to the poor Nutrition: the double-edged sword Source: Dobbs et al. 2014 Obesity is one of the top three social burdens  generated by human beings But to what extent is livestock consumption contributing? • Overeating • Physical inactivity • High-fat diets (ASF) • Diets high in refined carbohydrates • Sugared soft drinks • Excessive alcohol consumption  Obesity causes some 5% of global deaths • More than 2 billion are sickened each year from the food they eat • Millions more die from zoonotic diseases that emerge from, or persist in, agricultural ecosystems • Diseases recently emerged from animals make up 25% of the infectious disease burden in least developed countries and kill one in ten people who live there  ➜ We have proven agricultural interventions which can tackle the diseases associated with agriculture ➜ $25 billion invested in zoonotic disease control would bring benefits worth $125 billion Diseases related to livestock farming (Source: Grace 2012) H7N9 risk prediction Emerging diseases – Avian Influenza Source: Gilbert et al. (2014) Source: Gilbert et al. (under review) Data mining extensive and intensive chicken production Intensification trajectories Source: Gilbert et al. (under review) Intensification trajectories Creating bootstrapped models Source: Gilbert et al. (under review) Intensification trajectories Applying models to all countries Source: Gilbert et al. (under review) Intensification trajectories Here is China… Intensification trajectories … and several other important countries for AI in humans Intensification trajectories Focus on these countries, standardized to 2010 data Focus on these countries, standardized to 2030 FAO projections Intensification trajectories South Asia Source: Gilbert et al. (under review) Intensification trajectories Focus on these countries, standardized to 2030 FAO projections Source: Gilbert et al. (under review) Intensification trajectories Focus on these countries, standardized to 2050 FAO projections Antimicrobial resistance • USA: at least 2 million people get drug-resistant infections each year, and at least 23,000 die from them • USA: 80% of antimicrobial sales are in the agricultural sector • Total consumption in the livestock sector in 2010 estimated at 63,151 tons • Global antimicrobial consumption will rise by 67% by 2030 • It will nearly double in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries • China’s livestock industry by itself could soon be consuming almost one third of world’s available antibiotics Antimicrobial resistance Source: Van Boeckel et al. 2015 Global antimicrobial use in food animals  (mg per 10km pixel) Antimicrobial resistance • The European Union banned the use of antibiotics to boost animals' growth in 2006 • There is a ‘voluntary’ ban in the USA • Chick-fil-A, McDonalds and Costco stopping antimicrobial use in the production chain  ➜ Concerted action – multi-stakeholder platforms ➜ Strengthen the evidence base linking agricultural use to AMR in the medical sector ➜ Appropriate approaches in different settings – poor countries may not have the ‘resilience’ or ‘capacity’ of Europe in withstanding a blanket ban, for example    Livestock and the environment ➜ ADAPTATION ➜ Capacity to respond  to changes  Livestock Environment GHG emissions Climate change Carbon sequestration Land use change Pollution Water resource availability Feed availability Nutrient cycling Land degradation Biodiversity ➜ MITIGATION ➜ Climate-smart agriculture Source: Gerber et al. (2013) • 14.5% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions • Beef production generates 6 times more GHG emissions per unit of protein than pork, chicken and eggs Kilograms of CO2e per kilogram of protein Contribution to climate change Source: Gerber et al. 2013 per unit of edible protein Livestock emissions Source: Gerber et al. 2013 Livestock emissions per unit of land Source : Shaw et al. (2014)  Economic benefits over 20 years of trypanosomosis removal Cattle production system Pastoral Agro- pastoral Mixed farming  (general) Mixed farming (Ethiopia) Low oxen 63 82 90 102 Medium oxen – 98 122 135 High oxen – 118 152 161 High dairy – 142 148 – Cattle density Tsetse distribution Production systems Herd model  Burden of disease Herd growth a d spr ad Value of production  Production systems Economic benefits per animal (US$) Bringing it all together Decrease in emissions intensity arising from trypanosomosis removal Reduction in EI Production system Results Source: MacLeod et al. (submitted)  Results • Removal of trypanosomosis leads to significant increases in production and emissions across all the systems • Production increases by more than emissions so EI decreases • The biggest decrease in EI is in the high yield dairy systems • Demonstrates a clear link between improving  productivity and decreasing EI % change in emissions intensity Source: MacLeod et al. (submitted)  In conclusion ‘The fundamental interconnectedness of all things’ • Rapid demand growth for Animal Source Foods – particularly in developing and emerging economies • The response of the livestock sector to this growth has major implications for global, interconnected, public goods • This calls for integrated solutions to guide sector development along a sustainable pathway • These are global issues and require global responses Thank You ! 

The global livestock sector: Trends, drivers and implications for society, health and the environment

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The global livestock sector: Trends, drivers and implications for society, health and the environment

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