Bett, Bernard K.

Kifugo, S.C.

Ontiri, E.

Otieno, T.

Said, Mohammed Yahya

CGSpace

Mapping ecosystem services and trade-offs  Mohammed Said, Shem Kifugo, Tom Otieno, Enoch Ontiri and Bernard Bett International Livestock Research Institute    Workshop on Dynamics Drivers of Diseases in Africa, Naivasha 24th – 26th June 2014 Study Area The study site is has been identified as a biodiversity hotspot  • supporting a unique plant taxonomy and a recorded 262 bird species and 57 mammal species   • including two highly endangered primates: the Red Colobus (Colobus badius rufomitratus) and the Crested Mangabey (Cercocebus galeritus galeritus)   • The Tana River delta site was officially declared a Ramsar site, under the Ramsar Convention, in October 2012  • About 5000 birds use the delta for breeding  Source: KSS, ILRI Study Site Tana River Source: KSS, ILRI !.!.BuraHola0 10 20 30 405Kilometers´LegendSettlementsIrrigation Schemespermanentmixedtemporary!. TownsStudy BlockTana River CountyTana RiverOther RiversRiverrine ForestsImportance Floodplains, Primate Reserve and Ramsar Site Source: KWS Rainfall and climate Source: ILRI, KMD 0100200300400JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberRainfall (mm) Ijara 050100150200JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecemberRainfall (mm) Bura 50 0 50 100 KilometersMonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDeca) Start of the growing season b) End of the growing seasond) LGP - 2nd Seasonc) LGP - 1st  SeasonLGP (days)30 - 6060 - 9090 - 120120 - 150150 - 180180 - 210210 - 240240 - 270270 - 300Human population changes FACTS • There are two major irrigation schemes– Bura and Hola.   • Bura Irrigation Scheme was started in 1978 to settle landless farmers. It covers an area of 2500 Ha with a tenant population of 2245 farmers settled in 10 villages  • Hola Irrigation Scheme started in 1953. It has a gazetted area of 4,800 hectares of which only 900 hectares are under cultivation. Mapping Ecosystem Service Ecosystem services, wellbeing and disease dynamics: a conceptual framework  Source: DDDAC Storyline  • Ecosystem changes have great implications on human health and wellbeing; these relationships are complex and might vary from system to systems.   • In general, ecological changes degrade disease regulatory services or increase the vulnerability of human and animal populations to infectious diseases.   • For instance, irrigation increases food production in a given area but standing water pools in farms and watersheds provide good breeding grounds for the development of diverse species of arthropod vectors.   • These drainages also serve as valuable watering points for both livestock and wildlife, particularly in the dry season, enabling faster transmission of infectious diseases.  Source: DDDAC InVEST Stakeholder Engagement Staging Scenarios (A Management, Climate, Population) Models Biodiversity Provisioning Regulating Cultural Supporting Species Food Climate Recreation Pollination Habitats Timber Stability Tradition Fresh Water Community Flood Control Outputs ~ Biophysical, Economic, Cultural Maps Trade-off  Curves Balance  Sheets Source: InVEST Documentation Example - Biodiversity InVEST Data and Model Inventory Step Data requirements Process Outputs Biodiversity: Habitat Quality and Rarity (Tier 0) Required Supply Current Land use/land cover Calculate habitat quality and degradation based on threat intensity and sensitivity Habitat degradation index; Habitat quality index Threat impact distance Relative threat impact weights Form of threat decay function Threat maps Habitat suitability (optional: by species group) Habitat sensitivity to threats Half saturation constant Protected status Optional Supply Baseline land use/land cover Calculates rarity of current and/or future habitat types relative to baseline; calculates quality and degradation of baseline based on threat intensity and sensitivity Relative habitat rarity index for current and/or future land use/land cover; Degradation and quality for baseline Future land use/land cover Calculates quality and degradation of future scenario based on threat intensity and sensitivity; optionally calculates habitat rarity relative to baseline Habitat degradation, quality and optionally rarity for future scenario Source: InVEST Documentation InVEST information flow and integration of the model Source: InVEST Documentation Land cover changes and Transition matrix Land Cover Map for Ijara  1985 Source: ILRI, Kifugo in prep Land Cover Map for Ijara  2008 Source: ILRI Summary Statistics Land cover 1985 (sq km) 2008 (sq km) % change Very open shrubs(40-15% crown cover) 1576 4097 160 Open to close herbaceous vegetation on temporarily flooded land 733 7 -99 Trees and shrub savanah 662 288 -56 Open  to closed herbaceous vegetaion 457 394 -14 Open trees on temporarily flooded land 296 63 -79 Very open trees(40-15% crown cover) 221 23 -90 Open trees(65-40% crown cover 420 539 28 Closed trees 694 244 -65 Scattered (in natural vegetation or other) Rainfed herbaceous crop (field density 20-40% of polygon area) 0 6 Urban and associated areas, rural settlements 0 4 Transition Matrix- Ijara    Closed trees    Open trees (65-40% crown cover)   Very open trees (40-15% crown cover) Open trees on temporarily flooded land   Trees and shrubs savannah  Very open shrubs (40-15% crown cover Open to closed herbaceous vegetation on temporarily flooded  Open to closed herbaceous vegetation  Closed trees To Urban and associated areas, rural settlements change Priority Proximate Closed trees  0 23 0 17 12 0 2 22 0 Open trees (65-40% crown cover)  11 0 15 11 11 8 8 13 9 Very open trees (40-15% crown cover) 35 9 0 11 18 17 5 0 0 Open trees on temporarily flooded land   0 16 10 0 15 11 13 11 9 Trees and shrubs savannah  13 0 16 13 0 9 12 13 11 Very open shrubs (40-15% crown cover 3 22 22 13 8 0 4 21 4 Open to closed herbaceous vegetation on temporarily flooded  12 5 7 18 19 5 0 0 3 Open to closed herbaceous vegetation 10 11 17 10 11 9 8 15 0 Land cover RVF Total % positive OR P   Negative Positive         Artificial areas 0 1 1   1.00 omitted Bare areas 95 3 98 3.1% 0.11 0.00 Closed broOpen broadleaved deciduous forestad leaved deciduous forest 13 7 20 35.0% 2.16 0.11 Closed broadleaved deciduous forest 18 9 27 33.3% 2.01 0.09 Closed to open broadleaved evergreen or semi-deciduous forest 10 7 17 41.2% 2.82 0.04 Closed to open broadleaved forest regularly flooded (fresh-brackish water) 2 0 2 0.0% 0.00 omitted Closed to open grassland 208 57 265 21.5% 1.11 0.55 Closed to open shrubland 27 16 43 37.2% 2.44 0.01 Mosaic Croplands/Vegetation 76 22 98 22.4% 1.16 0.57 Mosaic Forest-Shrubland/Grassland 170 43 213 20.2% 1.00 0.99 Mosaic Grassland/Forest-Shrubland 6 2 8 25.0% 1.32 0.73 Mosaic Vegetation/Croplands 134 39 173 22.5% 1.18 0.41 Open needle leaved deciduous or evergr.. 1 0 1 0.0% 0.00 omitted Rainfed croplands 23 2 25 8.0% 0.34 0.14 Sparse vegetation 69 12 81 14.8% 0.67 0.21 Water bodies 20 1 21 4.8% 0.19 0.11               Total 872 221 1,093       Relationship between land cover and RVF risk  RVF was less likely to occur in areas with sparse vegetation, water bodies, rainfed crop lands, and in bare areas (significant at alpha 0.05) Source: Bett, DDDAC Tana River – land cover changes 20 0 20 40 60 80 KilometersNOpen shrubs (65-40% crown cover)Very open shrubs (40-15% crown cover)Closed herbaceous vegetation onpermanently flooded landOpen to closed herbaceous vegetationon temporarily floodedOpen to closed herbaceous vegetationIrrigated land / CroplandCloudsTana River-WaterbodiesUrban and Rural SettementsOpen trees on temporarily flooded landTrees and shrubs savannahVery open trees (40-15% crown cover)Open trees (65-40% crown cover)Closed treesLegenda) 1975 b) 2010Land cover changes Source: Said, Kifugo et al. (in prep)   1975 2010 Area Change (%) Land cover  Area (km2) Area (%) Area (km2) Area (%) Closed trees 62 1 0 0 -100 Open trees (65-40% crown cover) 370 7 68 1 -81 Very open trees (40-15% crown cover) 741 13 636 11 -14 Trees and shrubs savannah 744 13 439 8 -41 Open trees on temporarily flooded land 169 3 199 4 18 Open shrubs (65-40% crown cover) 836 15 699 12 -16 Very open shrubs (40-15% crown cover) 1516 27 1604 29 6 Sparse Shrubs 0 0 642 11  11 Open to closed herbaceous vegetation 244 4 0 0 -100 Closed herbaceous vegetation on permanently flooded land 181 3 244 4 35 Open to closed herbaceous vegetation on temporarily flooded 675 12 811 14 20 Cropland//irrigated 14 0 209 4 1359 Tana river-water bodies 50 1 42 1 -18 Urban and associated areas, rural settlements 0 0 9 1 1 Land cover changes statistics Source: Said, Kifugo et al. (in prep) Livestock and wildlife trends  1977 - 2011 Livestock trends Source: DRSRS Wildlife trends Source: DRSRS Trade-off Analysis - next steps  Ecosystem services and diseases Ecosystem Services and biodiversity   Source: 2008 Natural Capital Project Disease control Thank you 

Mapping ecosystem services and trade-offs

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Mapping ecosystem services and trade-offs

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