In Vietnam, there are more than 4 million households producing pigs and pork. This
accounts for 57% of quantity of meat consumed. One of the most critical constraints
to pig production is the presence of animal disease. Pig disease outbreaks are a regular
occurrence in various parts of the country, with the industry affected by diseases
such as foot and mouth disease, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, classical
swine fever, porcine high fever disease, and swine influenza. In addition, food
safety issues related to pig diseases and pork-borne diseases have also increasingly become
more important concerns for consumers. Recent studies have shown significant
changes in consumption behaviour in response to disease outbreaks. For instance, at
least half of urban consumers stop consuming pork in times of pig disease epidemics
and/or shift consumption to other meat substitutes such as poultry or fish. Disease
risks thus have both public health and livelihoods impacts that are important to understand
for appropriate policy and practice response.
A proposed methodology for investigating disease risks uses a system dynamics analysis
framework. System dynamics models are particularly relevant in the study of livestock
systems, as they capture the diverse actors and feedbacks present in value chains
and their interface with disease risk and behaviour. A system dynamics model is developed
that will describe different scenarios of disease risks and the consequences of
different interventions to mitigate these risks.
Data from a sample of 1000 farmers and value chain actors including all actors in the
pig value chain in Vietnam was collected with support from an ACIAR-funded project
on Reducing Disease Risks and Improving Food Safety in Smallholder Pig Value
Chains in Vietnam. We propose to test the hypotheses that disease risk is affected by
type of production system, feeding system and types of feed uses, access to inputs
and services, and selected socio-demographic variables associated with farmers and
location
