Multilevel ensemble Kalman filtering for spatio-temporal processes

Abstract

We design and analyse the performance of a multilevel ensemble Kalman filter method (MLEnKF) for filtering settings where the underlying state-space model is an infinite-dimensional spatio-temporal process. We consider underlying models that needs to be simulated by numerical methods, with discretization in both space and time. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling strategy, achieving variance reduction through pairwise coupling of ensemble particles on neighboring resolutions, is used in the sample-moment step of MLEnKF to produce an efficient hierarchical filtering method for spatio-temporal models. Under sufficient regularity, MLEnKF is proven to be more efficient for weak approximations than EnKF, asymptotically in the large-ensemble and fine-numerical-resolution limit. Numerical examples support our theoretical findings.Comment: Version 1: 39 pages, 4 figures.arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1608.08558 . Version 2 (this version): 52 pages, 6 figures. Revision primarily of the introduction and the numerical examples sectio