Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institut für Agrar- und Gartenbauwissenschaften
Doi
Abstract
This paper applies the concept of a term structure to agricultural land rental prices. Based on theoretical considerations, we develop a hedonic pricing model that allows for different shapes of the term structure curve while controlling for other price-relevant characteristics. We apply this model to land lease contracts in Saxony-Anhalt concluded between 2002 and 2010. We find an upward-sloping term structure at the beginning, that is, market participants expected increasing rental prices. For the subsequent years, however, we detect a singlehumped term structure. Hence, market participants revised their expectations and assumed a decline of land rental prices in the long-term
