An analysis of the political situation in the Czech Republic after the general election which took place on 20th and 21st October 2017

Culik, Jan

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11/1/2017 Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a governmenthttps://theconversation.com/czech-far-right-scores-big-in-elections-but-struggles-to-form-a-government-86156 1/4AuthorJan CulikSenior Lecturer in Czech Studies,University of GlasgowAcademic rigour, journalistic flairAs expected, the general election which took place in the Czech Republic on 20-21October, was won by authoritarian, populist oligarch Andrej Babiš. He is well knownfor his brutal business practices, his desire to curtail the role of parliament, and hisurge to interfere with the media. Although he is currently being prosecuted for financial irregularities, he and his ANO party nonetheless won 29.64% of the popularvote.The usually right-of-centre Civic Democratic Party (ODS), some of whose toppoliticians recently moved sharply to the extreme right, came second with 11.32%. Inthird place was the anti-establishment Pirate Party, with 10.79%, while the Czech-Japanese-Korean activist Tomio Okamura’s sharply xenophobic, anti-refugee and anti-MuslimFreedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party was fourth, with 10.64% of the vote.The left, meanwhile, met with electoral disaster. The Czech Social Democratic Party, which has to datebeen the senior partner in the government coalition and which in 2013 won 20.45% of the vote, sawAndrej Babiš, riding high. EPA/Martin DivisekOctober 23, 2017 1.21pm BSTCzech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to forma government11/1/2017 Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a governmenthttps://theconversation.com/czech-far-right-scores-big-in-elections-but-struggles-to-form-a-government-86156 2/4its share crash to a mere 7.27% – putting it behind even the unreconstructed Communist Party, whichwon 7.76%.But what matters in the Czech elections is not the number of votes, but the number of seats gained.Babiš’s ANO won only 78 seats in parliament’s 200-seat lower chamber, and at this stage, it’s far fromclear with whom it will form a governing coalition.Babiš cannot go in with the fascist SPD or the communists alone: ANO-plus-SPD equals 100 seats,while ANO-plus-Communist Party comes to 93. Even though Babiš wants to make “simplifying”changes to the Czech constitution, this appears impossible after the election, because none of thepotential coalitions of partners that might support this would reach the three-fifths majority (120seats) required for constitutional changes.There’s been speculation that ANO could form a coalition with the right-of-centre ODS, but thatwould still only get it to a mere 103 seats. Coalitions of several parties are also being discussed; thestrongest possible combinations of three or four parties would have 125 of the 200 seats. The ultimatequestion, then, is whether the hard-right SPD will be included.Pirates and cynicsBabiš has tried to reassure the world that he is strongly pro-European, adding that he is not in favourof forming a government coalition with SPD extremists. But at the same time, he has expressedintentions to form a pan-European “anti-refugee” alliance in order to stop all immigration intoEurope.In the past, he has issued various brutal anti-refugee statements, and in his new “EU anti-refugeeproject”, Babiš is hoping to gain the support of the new Austrian Chancellor, migration hawk Sebastian Kurz.The problem with Babiš, though, is he can’t be taken at his word. In business and in politics alike, hehas a long record of almost always doing the exact opposite of what he promises. And while Westerncommentators might justifiably be wary of a potentially anti-European, xenophobic, authoritarian andanti-refugee leader who might further destabilise Europe, the fact is, in spite of Babiš’s win in theCzech election, his position seems rather unstable.With the exception of the ODS, most of the other parties might be unwilling or unable to form alasting coalition. The anti-establishment Pirate Party, which has entered parliament for the first timeby winning 22 seats, has no consistent ideology or political programme, and its elected figures arepolitically inexperienced; its incoherence means it could disintegrate within weeks.11/1/2017 Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a governmenthttps://theconversation.com/czech-far-right-scores-big-in-elections-but-struggles-to-form-a-government-86156 3/4Czech Republic European politics Islamophobia Xenophobia Far right politics anti-immigration Visegrad GroupCentral EuropeThe same applies to the anti-Muslim, anti-immigration and fiercely xenophobic SPD. Only couple ofyears ago, its leader Okamura was still an ardent supporter of multiculturalism and of welcomingforeigners. Cynics say that someone may have advised Okamura to stand on an anti-Muslim, anti-refugee platform simply to gain access to large amounts of money; after all, many Czech politiciansenter parliament principally to gain access to lucrative contracts.Babiš is also dogged by the European Union’s OLAF anti-fraud office, which is investigatingallegations of fraud and misuse of EU subsidies for his entertainment centre Čapí hnízdo (A Stork’sNest). The inquiry is reportedly nearing completion. Should he be prosecuted or even jailed, it couldbe disastrous for his party, an extremely autocratic organisation that would all likelihood collapsewithout him.So why exactly did the Czech general public vote for an authoritarian oligarch who has promised to“simplify” parliament and who is under criminal investigation for fraud? I spent the election weekendtalking to voters in the Czech Republic, and their views were almost unanimous. As one told me: “Allthe establishment politicians over the past 28 years of post-communism have been corrupt. This iswhy we have now voted for an anti-establishment figure. Are we bothered that Babiš is beingprosecuted for financial irregularities? No, we admire him for being able to outwit evil Brussels.”This piece has been updated to correct the number of parliamentary votes needed to passconstitutional changes. The correct number is a three-fifths majority, i.e. 120 seats.Strange bedfellows: Pirate Party leader Ivan Bartos (L) and the SPD’s Tomio Okamura. EPA/Martin Divisek11/1/2017 Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a governmenthttps://theconversation.com/czech-far-right-scores-big-in-elections-but-struggles-to-form-a-government-86156 4/4Facts matter. Your tax-deductible donation helps deliver fact-based journalism.Make a donation

Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a government

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11/1/2017 Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a government
https://theconversation.com/czech-far-right-scores-big-in-elections-but-struggles-to-form-a-government-86156 1/4
Author
Jan Culik
Senior Lecturer in Czech Studies,
University of Glasgow
Academic rigour, journalistic flair
As expected, the general election which took place in the Czech Republic on 20-21
October, was won by authoritarian, populist oligarch Andrej Babiš. He is well known
for his brutal business practices, his desire to curtail the role of parliament, and his
urge to interfere with the media. Although he is currently being prosecuted for 
financial irregularities, he and his ANO party nonetheless won 29.64% of the popular
vote.
The usually right-of-centre Civic Democratic Party (ODS), some of whose top
politicians recently moved sharply to the extreme right, came second with 11.32%. In
third place was the anti-establishment Pirate Party, with 10.79%, while the Czech-
Japanese-Korean activist Tomio Okamura’s sharply xenophobic, anti-refugee and anti-Muslim
Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party was fourth, with 10.64% of the vote.
The left, meanwhile, met with electoral disaster. The Czech Social Democratic Party, which has to date
been the senior partner in the government coalition and which in 2013 won 20.45% of the vote, saw
Andrej Babiš, riding high. EPA/Martin Divisek
October 23, 2017 1.21pm BST
Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form
a government
11/1/2017 Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a government
https://theconversation.com/czech-far-right-scores-big-in-elections-but-struggles-to-form-a-government-86156 2/4
its share crash to a mere 7.27% – putting it behind even the unreconstructed Communist Party, which
won 7.76%.
But what matters in the Czech elections is not the number of votes, but the number of seats gained.
Babiš’s ANO won only 78 seats in parliament’s 200-seat lower chamber, and at this stage, it’s far from
clear with whom it will form a governing coalition.
Babiš cannot go in with the fascist SPD or the communists alone: ANO-plus-SPD equals 100 seats,
while ANO-plus-Communist Party comes to 93. Even though Babiš wants to make “simplifying”
changes to the Czech constitution, this appears impossible after the election, because none of the
potential coalitions of partners that might support this would reach the three-fifths majority (120
seats) required for constitutional changes.
There’s been speculation that ANO could form a coalition with the right-of-centre ODS, but that
would still only get it to a mere 103 seats. Coalitions of several parties are also being discussed; the
strongest possible combinations of three or four parties would have 125 of the 200 seats. The ultimate
question, then, is whether the hard-right SPD will be included.
Pirates and cynics
Babiš has tried to reassure the world that he is strongly pro-European, adding that he is not in favour
of forming a government coalition with SPD extremists. But at the same time, he has expressed
intentions to form a pan-European “anti-refugee” alliance in order to stop all immigration into
Europe.
In the past, he has issued various brutal anti-refugee statements, and in his new “EU anti-refugee
project”, Babiš is hoping to gain the support of the new Austrian Chancellor, migration hawk 
Sebastian Kurz.
The problem with Babiš, though, is he can’t be taken at his word. In business and in politics alike, he
has a long record of almost always doing the exact opposite of what he promises. And while Western
commentators might justifiably be wary of a potentially anti-European, xenophobic, authoritarian and
anti-refugee leader who might further destabilise Europe, the fact is, in spite of Babiš’s win in the
Czech election, his position seems rather unstable.
With the exception of the ODS, most of the other parties might be unwilling or unable to form a
lasting coalition. The anti-establishment Pirate Party, which has entered parliament for the first time
by winning 22 seats, has no consistent ideology or political programme, and its elected figures are
politically inexperienced; its incoherence means it could disintegrate within weeks.
11/1/2017 Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a government
https://theconversation.com/czech-far-right-scores-big-in-elections-but-struggles-to-form-a-government-86156 3/4
Czech Republic European politics Islamophobia Xenophobia Far right politics anti-immigration Visegrad Group
Central Europe
The same applies to the anti-Muslim, anti-immigration and fiercely xenophobic SPD. Only couple of
years ago, its leader Okamura was still an ardent supporter of multiculturalism and of welcoming
foreigners. Cynics say that someone may have advised Okamura to stand on an anti-Muslim, anti-
refugee platform simply to gain access to large amounts of money; after all, many Czech politicians
enter parliament principally to gain access to lucrative contracts.
Babiš is also dogged by the European Union’s OLAF anti-fraud office, which is investigating
allegations of fraud and misuse of EU subsidies for his entertainment centre Čapí hnízdo (A Stork’s
Nest). The inquiry is reportedly nearing completion. Should he be prosecuted or even jailed, it could
be disastrous for his party, an extremely autocratic organisation that would all likelihood collapse
without him.
So why exactly did the Czech general public vote for an authoritarian oligarch who has promised to
“simplify” parliament and who is under criminal investigation for fraud? I spent the election weekend
talking to voters in the Czech Republic, and their views were almost unanimous. As one told me: “All
the establishment politicians over the past 28 years of post-communism have been corrupt. This is
why we have now voted for an anti-establishment figure. Are we bothered that Babiš is being
prosecuted for financial irregularities? No, we admire him for being able to outwit evil Brussels.”
This piece has been updated to correct the number of parliamentary votes needed to pass
constitutional changes. The correct number is a three-fifths majority, i.e. 120 seats.
Strange bedfellows: Pirate Party leader Ivan Bartos (L) and the SPD’s Tomio Okamura. EPA/Martin Divisek
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11/1/2017 Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a government
https://theconversation.com/czech-far-right-scores-big-in-elections-but-struggles-to-form-a-government-86156 4/4
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Make a donation


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Czech far right scores big in elections, but struggles to form a government

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