A reaction kinetics based model of the photodegradation process, which measures all important rate constants, and a computerized model capable of predicting the photodegradation rate and failure modes of a 30 year period, were developed. It is shown that the computerized photodegradation model for polyethylene correctly predicts failure of ELVAX 15 and cross linked ELVAX 150 on outdoor exposure. It is indicated that cross linking ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) does not significantly change its degradation rate. It is shown that the effect of the stabilizer package is approximately equivalent on both polymers. The computerized model indicates that peroxide decomposers and UV absorbers are the most effective stabilizers. It is found that a combination of UV absorbers and a hindered amine light stabilizer (HALS) is the most effective stabilizer system
