Vu-graphs are presented that show that point focus distributed receiver distributed generation systems are cost competitive with current utilities. System cost caveats and typical power module costs are described. Major problems inhibiting commercialization of the parabolic dish technology were reviewed

Sumrall, C.

English

NASA Technical Reports Server

FORD AEROSPACE AND COMMUNICATIONS CORPORATION 
Calhoun Sumrall 
Ladies and gentlemen, I gm de l igh ted  t o  be  here  t o  provide an i n d u s t r i a l  
viewpoint c o m e n t a r y  on t h e  s t a t u s  of t h e  c u r r e n t  p a r a b o l i c  d i s h  technology 
and the assoc ia ted  DOE funded programs which a s s i s t  i n  the  development of 
comnercia l iza t ion.  
I am s u b s t i t u t i n g  f o r  Bob Pons who i s  we l l  known t o  many of you. I am 
happy t o  r e p o r t  t h a t  Bob is  making a  s t rong  recovery from open h e a r t  su rge ry ,  
and he w i l l  be back l e a d i n g  our So la r  Energy Systems eng ineer ing  e f f o r t  i n  a  
few weeks. He sends h i s  r egards .  
F i r s a r e  PFDR systems compet i t ive?  Chart 1 shows a  s tudy t h a t  
compares BBEC (kWeh) f o r  Po in t  Focus-Distr ibuted Receiver-Dis t r ibuted 
Generation Systems a s  a  func t ion  of production volume and time. This a n a l y s i s  
draws upon much background d a t a  from JPL a s  we l l  a s  FACC a n a l y s i s .  The s o l i d  
l i n e s  1-4 represen t  cos t  p r o j e c t i o n s  fo r  new convent ional  o i l  f i r e d  power 
p l a n t s  i n  small  c a p a c i t i e s  ( 8  MW) a t  s p e c i f i c  l o c a t i o n s  ranging from C a t a l i n a  
I s l and  across  the na t ion .  The shaded a rea  p r o j e c t s  the cos t  of new coa l - f i r ed  
1,000 MW c a p a c i t i e s  i n  t h e  south  A t l a n t i c  s t a t e s  t o  t h e  west and nor th  c e n t r a l  
s t a t e s .  Such c a l c u l a t i o n s  a r e  h ighly  s e n s i t i v e  t o  assumptions r e l a t i v e  t o  
f u e l  i n f l a t i o n  r a t e s  over t h e  30 yea r  period a s  wel l  a s  assumed module 
production r a t e s .  Nonetheless,  the  s a l i e n t  point  i s  t h a t  PFDR systems can be 
compet i t ive  i n  a  l a r g e  number of smal l  communities, provided t h a t  adequate 
product ion volume can be developed. 
Second, i s  the technology a v a i l a b l e ?  We th ink  so ,  and intend t o  prove 
i t  by the  opera t ion  of  Engineering Experiment No. 1  t h i s  year  a t  the  J P L  
Parabo l i c  Dish Test  S i t e .  You have hea rd ,  o r  w i l l  h e a r ,  s g r e a t  dea l  about 
t h e  Organic Rankine Engine, Phase I1 Experiment a t  t h i s  annual meeting. 
F u r t h e r ,  vou w i l l  hear a  g r e a t  dea l  about g l a s s  and p l a s t i c  c o n c e n t r a t o r s ,  and 
S t i r  l i n g  and Brayton engines .  
Chart 2  p resen t s  the t o t a l  system e f f i c i e n c y  f o r  each engine candidate  
coupled with e i t h e r  p l a s t i c  o r  g l a s s  concen t ra to r s .  Note the  p red ic ted  engine 
thermodynamic performance inc rease  i s  p a r t i a l l y  of £ s e t  by the  increased l o s s  
of the  rece ive r  a t  t h e  h igher  temperature.  The h igher  r e f l e c t i v i t y  of the  
g l a s s  concentra tor  provides  a  c o n s i s t e n t  3-4 percent  point  improvement. 
Th i rd ,  system c o s t s  a r e  h ighly  s e n s i t i v e  t o  subsystem s p e c i f i c a t i o n s .  A 
few caveats  a r e  noted: 
( 1 )  Concentrator c o s t s  a r e  a  s t r o n g  func t ion  of su r face  r e f l e c t  i u i t y  , 
s lope e r r o r ,  and concen t ra t ion  r a t i o .  
(2 )  High temperature engine performance r e q u i r e s  high concen t ra t  ion 
r a t i o s ,  low s lope  e r r o r s ,  and high r e f l e c t a n c e .  
(3 )  Sun a c q u i s i t i o n ,  t r a c k ,  and emergency d e t r a c k  requirements s t r o n g l y  
i n £  luence a p e r t u r e  face p l a t e  des ign and power copvers ion s t r u c -  
t u r a l  i n t e g r i t y ,  and s u r v i v a b i l i t y .  
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19810021995 2020-03-21T09:46:40+00:00Z
( 4 )  Low l i f e  c y c l e  c o s t s  r e q u i r e  a f a u l t  t o l e r a n t  d e s i g n  which u t i l i z e s  
s imple  main tenance  p rocedures ,  and which does  no t  p ropaga te  f a i l u r e  
t o  a d j a c e n t  modules. 
(5) Low o p e r a t i n g  c o s t s  r e q u i r e  a  t o t a l l y  unmanned, computer c o n t r o l l e d  
au toma t i c  mode o f  o p e r a t i o n .  
Four th ,  a r e  we head ing  toward t h e  commerc i a l i za t i on  o b j e c t i v e ?  Char t  4  
p r o j e c t s  a  t y p i c h l  power module c o s t  a s  a  f u n c t i o n  o f  p roduc t ion  q u a n t i t y  a f t e r  
i n i t i a l  R6D q u a n t i t i e s  have been t e s t e d .  A commitment t o  p roduc t ion  r a t e s  i n  
e x c e s s  of  1,000 power modules p e r  y e a r  must b e  reached  t o  ach i eve  economic v i a -  
b i l i t y ,  and suppor t  t he  n e c e s s a r y  inves tment  i n  f a c i l i t i e s  and t o o l i , ~ g .  Note 
t h a t  t h e  c o n c e n t r a t o r  r e p r e s e n t s  t h e  l a r g e s t  component o f  c o s t .  
F i f t h ,  do the  R&D programs phase i n t o  p roduc t ion?  Chart  5  is an npproxi -  
mate s chedu le  o f  c u r r e n t  DOE development programs. Through 1984 o n l y  65  power 
modules a r e  programmed. Then a  2-year pause occu r s  b e f o r e  a  p r o d u c t i o n  d e c i -  
s i o n  f o r  f i r s t  g e n e r a t i o n  equipment is made. Low p roduc t ion  r a t e s  w i l l  r e s u l t  
i n  h igh  u n i t  c o s t s .  
We f e e l  t h a t  i t  is e s s e n t i a l  t h a t  t h e  pe r iod  of  1984-86 be augmented 
wi th  a  number of  a d d i t i o n a l  1  MW o r  l a r g e r  sys tems.  Secondly ,  we need an  
a c c e l e r a t i o n  i n  p roduc t ion  r a t e  of pro t0 typ .s  t o  j u s t i f y  d e q u a t e  p roduc t ion  
type  t o o l i n g .  
S i x t h ,  what a r e  t h e  major problems i n h i b i t i n g  c c m e r c i a l i z a t i o n ?  Char t  
6 l i s t s  f i v e .  I n s u f f i c i e n t  funds  a r e  c u r r e n t l y  p r o g r a ~ m ? d  t o  s u p p o r t  a  f u l l  
s c a l e  development t r a n s i t i o n i n g  i n t o  p roduc t ion .  A multiplicity of  proEcams 
i s  r e q u i r e d .  
PFDR technology s u f f e r s  from an i d e n t i t y  c r i s i s .  What a r e  t h e  appro-  
p r i a t e  marke ts?  Does i t  complement t h e  Power Tower? Is i t  a p p l i c a b l e  t o  
repowering? I f  f e d e r a l  RCD funds  a r e  f u r t h e r  reduced ,  w i l l  we have o n l y  t h e  
Power Tower a s  t h e  s o l e  s o l a r  thermal  c a n d i d a t e ?  
I t  is my p e r s o n a l  op in ion  t h a t  we - b o t h  government and c o r p o r a t e  
r e s e a r c h e r s  - have f a i l e d  t o  c l e a r l y  d e l i n e a t e  t h e  r o l e s  f o r  p a r a b o l i c  d i s h  
technology,  p a r t i c u l a r l y  i n  r e g a r d s  t o  t h e  d e c i s i o n  makers i n  t h e  Congress  o f  
t h e  United S t a t e s .  I n  t h e  months ahead ,  i n  view of  t h e  pe r sonne l  changes i n  
t h e  Congress and t h e  r a t h e r  u n s e t t l e d  s i t u a t i o n  i n  t h e  DOE, we ought  t o  make a  
major  e f f o r t  t o  i d e n t i f y  t h e  r o l e s  and compara t ive  b e n e f i t s  of  t h i s  t e chno logy  
liild p re sen t  i t  t o  o u r  government l e a d e r s .  Given t h e  d e s i r a b i l i t y  of  t h i s  t e ch -  
nology,  I b e l i e v e  t h e r e  is a  major  d i f f i c u l t y  i n  b r i n g i n g  i t  t o  r a p i d  and suc-  
c e s s f u l  development and p roduc t ion .  Although v i r t u a l l y  a l l  economic a n a l y s e s  
show t h a t  t h e  c o n c e n t r a t o r  i s  app rox ima te ly  one-half  t h e  c o s t  of t h e  sys tem,  
c o n c e n t r a t o r  development is not  p roceed ing  a t  a  pace s u f f i c i e n t  t o  g i v e  t h e  
system deve1opc.r cho ices  and f l e x i b i l i t y .  Fur thermore ,  t h e r e  is  not  s t r o n g  
ev idence  t h a t  advanced c o n c e n t r a t o r s  a r e  b e i n g  developed which r e s u l t  i n  in-  
s t a l l e d  c o s t s  of l e s s  than  $100/m2. We nerd t o  deve lop  a  p a r a b o l i c  d i s h  
i n d u s t r y  a s  q u i c k l y  a s  we can.  
We feel that Parabolic Dish Technology offers significant advantagee for 
thermal-electric application and it can be competitive in many situations. 
Industry faces the need to aggressively market these system advantagee to 
obtain development funds and to proceed on a schedule which would permit timely 
evaluations and comparisons with alternate systems. We, at Ford, are dedicated 
to making this ha,? - en. 
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Status of the current parabolic dish technology

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