Publication presents a total long range planning model for project oriented organizations. The total model consists of planning systems which originate - /1/ at the project level and consolidate into an overall plan, and /2/ from a budetary ceiling and allocate to the individual projects. Analysis of /1/ and /2/ is provided for management decision making

Lejk, R. A.

English

NASA Technical Reports Server

December 1967	 Brief 67-10510 
NASA TECH BRIEF 
NASA Tech Briefs are issued to summarize specific innovations derived from the U.S. space program, 
to encourage their commercial application. Copies are available to the public at 15 cents each 
from the Clearinghouse for Federal Scientific and Technical Information, Springfield, Virginia 22151. 
Probabilistic Approach to Long Range Planning of Manpower 
The technological advances in such areas as elec-
tronics and aerospace engineering have been phe-
nomenal since World War II. Formalized long range 
planning, however, has not kept pace with this general 
technological growth. In the last several years, papers 
on the application of "scientific approaches" to cor-
porate long range planning have been published. All 
of these scientific approaches have been directed at 
only one phase or portion of the long range planning 
process—forecasting manpower requirements, allo-
cation of available resources, project selection, etc. 
There has not been, however, any single effort which 
develops a total model for the complete long range 
planning cycle or integrates the work of others into a 
total model. 
The problem generally encountered in long range 
planning is the development of a total system which 
encompasses all areas of the corporate structure. 
Associated with this problem is the proper identifica-
tion of the factors which bear on the various sections 
of the planning agency and upon which estimates are 
made. In many instances, a major difficulty arises in 
selecting the proper data base and in gathering all 
this necessary information. Too often, problem areas 
are attacked on an individual basis without considera-
tion of the resultant consequences. 
A detailed study has been made of this problem and 
presented in: A Probabilistic Approach to the Long 
Range Planning and Other Related Elements, by 
Richard Andrew Lejk, Texas A&M University, May 
1967. The problem presented in this publication is 
the formulation of a long range planning model for 
project oriented organizations. The total model con-
sists of:
A planning system which originates at the project 
level and consolidates into an overall plan. This 
includes: 
a. The development of appropriate techniques for 
forecasting the number of personnel required for 
each individual project. 
b. The development of the distribution functions 
for the forecasted personnel requirements over 
the time span of the projects. 
c. The presentation of a method of consolidating 
the individual probabilistic forecasted man-
power requirements into a total manpower 
plan. 
d. The presentation of a method for determining 
the associated totals for personnel and material 
costs, and acquisition, termination, and require-
ment schedules. 
2. A planning system which orginates from a budge-
tary ceiling or objective and allocates to the indi-
vidual projects. This includes: 
a. The development of the appropriate model(s) 
to forecast and allocate the total dollar value 
of the budget into budgetary limitations for 
each project. 
b. The translation of the project budgetary limi-
tations into manpower and support require-
ments. 
c. The development of the distribution functions 
for the allocation of the manpower over the 
time spans of the projects. 
Analysis of the results from (I) and (2) above so as 
to furnish management with the data necessary for 
appropriate decisions for project realignment and 
selection.
(continued overleaf) 
This document was prepared under the sponsorship of the National 	 Government assumes any liability resulting from the use of the 
Aeronautics and Space Administration. Neither the United States 	 information contained in this document, or warrants that such use 
Government nor any person acting on behalf of the United States 	 will be free from privately owned rights.
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19670000509 2020-03-11T20:56:45+00:00Z
manipulation of the majority equations to fit the 
operation of the circuit elements. Minimum propaga-
tion delay through the network (elements in series) 
is stressed. Given nine inputs, an implementation has 
been devised which gives a "true" output when any 
five or more of the inputs are "true". Figure 2 shows 
a block diagram of 5-out-of-9 majority circuitry. 
Note: 
Inquiries concerning this invention may be di-
rected to:
Technology Utilization Officer 
Jet Propulsion Laboratory 
4800 Oak Grove Drive 
Pasadena, California 91103 
Reference: B67-10511
Patent status: 
Inquiries about obtaining rights for the commercial 
use of this invention may be made to NASA, Code 
GP, Washington, D.C. 20546. 
Source: T. 0. Anderson, S. W. Golomb, 
and W. A. Lushbaugh
(JPL-727) 
Brief 67-10511	 Category 06
	
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Probabilistic approach to long range planning of manpower

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