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A Quantitative Analysis of Endogenous Target Fertility in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Even though the economic model of fertility seems theoretically plausible, application of the model to empirical data often gives us ambiguous impression about its validity. One source of the ambiguity that is examined by an empirical analysis in this paper comes from simultaneity of demand for and supply of children. Fertility differentials are explained by differences in educational attainment, work experience prior to marriage, possession of durable goods, job categories of the husband and the residual of the age at marriage. Differentials in parity progression are largely explained by the age of marriage or the previous childbirth. The effect of socio-economic variables is parity dependent in supply of children. Differentials in spacing of childbirths are explained by the expected demand and unexpected additional demand for children and the age difference from the mean age at marriage or the previous childbirth

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