Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

Augustijn-Beckers, Petronella

Doldersum, Tom

Augustijn, Ellen-Wien

Augustijn, Denie C.M.

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Investigating the role of water in the diffusion of cholera using agent - based simulation

University of Twente Research Information

Investigating the role of water in the diffusion of cholera using agent based simulation

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 16, EGU2014-15431, 2014EGU General Assembly 2014© Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.Investigating the role of water in the Diffusion of Cholera usingAgent-Based simulationEllen-Wien Augustijn, Tom Doldersum, and Denie AugustijnUniversity of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands (p.w.m.augustijn@utwente.nl)Traditionally, cholera was considered to be a waterborne disease. Currently we know that many other factors cancontribute to the spread of this disease including human mobility and human behavior. However, the hydrologicalcomponent in cholera diffusion is significant. The interplay between cholera and water includes bacteria (V.cholera) that survive in the aquatic environment, the possibility that run-off water from dumpsites carries thebacteria to surface water (rivers and lakes), and when the bacteria reach streams they can be carried downstreamto infect new locations.Modelling is a very important tool to build theory on the interplay between different types of transmissionmechanisms that together are responsible for the spread of Cholera. Agent-based simulation models are verysuitable to incorporate behavior at individual level and to reproduce emergence. However, it is more difficult toincorporate the hydrological components in this type of model.In this research we present the hydrological component of an Agent-Based Cholera model developed tostudy a Cholera epidemic in Kumasi (Ghana) in 2005. The model was calibrated on the relative contribution ofeach community to the distributed pattern of cholera rather than the absolute number of incidences. Analysis ofthe results shows that water plays an important role in the diffusion of cholera: 75% of the cholera cases wereinfected via river water that was contaminated by runoff from the dumpsites. To initiate infections upstream, theprobability of environment-to-human transmission seemed to be overestimated compared to what may be expectedfrom literature. Scenario analyses show that there is a strong relation between the epidemic curve and the rainfall.Removing dumpsites that are situated close to the river resulted in a strong decrease in the number of choleracases. Results are sensitive to the scheduling of the daily activities and the survival time of the cholera bacteria.

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Investigating the role of water in the diffusion of cholera using agent based simulation

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University of Twente Research Information

University of Twente Research Information

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