Bustamante Orellana, Carlos E.

Cevallos-Chavez, Jordy

Michael, Edwin

Montalvo, Cesar

Mubayi, Anuj

Sulliavan, Jeff

English

ISU ReD: Research and eData

Presentation for the Symposium on BEER November 2020Modeling and Preparedness: The TransmissionDynamics of COVID-19 Outbreak in Provinces ofEcuadorCarlos Bustamante-Orellana1,*, Jordy Cevallos-Chávez 1, Cesar Montalvo-Clavijo 2, JeffSullivan 3, Edwin Michael 4, and Anuj Mubayi 3,51Arizona State University, Tempe2University of Virginia3 PRECISIONheor, Precision Medicine Group, Los Angeles4 University of South Florida, Tampa5College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempecbustam3@asu.eduCOVID-19 disease became a pandemic in just a few months after it was first detected in China. Ecuadorhas reported one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in Latin America, with more than 62,000 cases and8,500 deaths in a country of approximately 17 million people. The dynamics of the outbreak has beingobserved quite different depending on the province being analyzed with high reported prevalence in somelow population density provinces. In this study, we aim to understand the variations in outbreaks betweenprovinces and provide assistance in essential preparedness planning in order to respond effectively to ongoingCOVID-19 outbreak. In this study, we have estimated the critical level of quarantine rate along withcorresponding leakage in order to avoid overwhelming the local health care system. The results suggest thatprovinces with high population density can avoid a large disease burden provided they initiate early andstricter quarantine measures even under low isolation rate. To best of our knowledge, this study is first fromthe region to determine which provinces will need much preparation for current outbreak in fall and whichmight need more help.

Modeling and Preparedness: The Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Outbreak in Provinces of Ecuador

https://ir.library.illinoisstate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?filename=0&article=1510&context=beer&type=additional

Modeling and Preparedness: The Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Outbreak in Provinces of Ecuador

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