Allen, Linda j

Nipa, Kaniz Fatema

English

ISU ReD: Research and eData

The Effect of Demographic Variability, EnvironmentalVariability, and Periodic Fluctuations on StochasticEpidemic ModelsKaniz Fatema Nipa, Linda J.S. AllenDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech Universitykaniz.fatema.nipa@ttu.eduSeasonality and contact patterns due to environmental fluctuations and social behavior affect the dynamicsof disease outbreaks. Recent studies applied to deterministic epidemic models with periodic environmentshave shown that the average basic reproduction number is not sufficient to predict an outbreak. We extendthese studies to stochastic epidemic models with periodic environments to investigate the combined effectof periodicity and variability on disease dynamics. The deterministic models are extended to continuous-time Markov chain and stochastic differential equations. A numerical study of the dynamics of stochasticvector-host and patchy models with environmental variability and periodicity are investigated in terms ofprobability of a disease outbreak and the dynamics near an endemic state.

The Effect of Demographic Variability, Environmental Variability, and Periodic Fluctuations on Stochastic Epidemic Models

https://ir.library.illinoisstate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1247&amp;context=beer

The Effect of Demographic Variability, Environmental Variability, and Periodic Fluctuations on Stochastic Epidemic Models

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ISU ReD: Research and eData