School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews.
Abstract
Previously in the University eprints HAIRST pilot service at http://eprints.st-andrews.ac.uk/archive/00000057/While Rational Expectations have dominated the paradigm of expectations formation,
they have been more recently challenged on the empirical ground such as, for
instance, in the dynamics of the exchange rate. This challenge has led to the
introduction of heterogeneous expectations in economic modeling. More specifically,
the forecasts of the market participants have been drawn from competing views. Two
behaviours are usually considered: agents are either fundamentalist or chartist.
Moreover, the possibility of switching from one behaviour to the other one is also
assumed.
In a simple cobweb model, we study the dynamics associated with different
endogenous switching process based on the path of prices. We provide an example
with an asymmetric endogenous switching process built on the dynamics of past
prices. This example confirms the widespread belief that fundamentalist market
behaviour as compared with that of chartist tends to promote market stability.Postprin