This week sees elections in Italy. The centre-left coalition have seen their comfortable polling lead reduced but are predicted to do be successful on election day. Giuliano Bobba and Duncan McDonnell argue that despite Silvio Berlusconi and Mario Monti’s rhetoric about promoting young people and women, the centre-left PD and SEL perform better on both counts, and that this bodes well for the future of the centre-left

Bobba, Giuliano

McDonnell, Duncan

English

LSE Research Online

blo gs.lse.ac.uk http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/02/19/italy-election-centre-left/The Italian centre-left is stalling in the campaign, but(probably) not in the electionBlog AdminThis week sees elections in Italy. The centre-left coalition have seen their comfortablepolling lead reduced but are predicted to do be successful on election day.  GiulianoBobba and Duncan McDonnell argue that despite Silvio Berlusconi and Mario Monti’srhetoric about promoting young people and women, the centre-left PD and SEL performbetter on both counts, and that this bodes well for the future of the centre-left.Given the f ear which Silvio Berlusconi strikes into newsrooms across Europe and hisability to help sell papers, we will inevitably read more alarmist editorial headlines like thisover the next 10 days, warning of  impending doom should the f ormer prime ministerreturn to power. So, let’s begin with a bit of  perspective:Based on surveys released last Friday (the f inal ones, given the 2-week pre-electionblackout), it is extremely unlikely we will ever again have the pleasure of  seeing Berlusconiinteracting with Angela Merkel. As the average results of  the main polling houses over thepast month in Figures 1 and 2 below show, Berlusconi’s Popolo della Libertà (PDL) andhis centre-right coalit ion have narrowed the gap on the Partito Democratico (PD) and the centre- lef talliance (PD and SEL), but there are still between 5 and 9 points separating them according to dif f erentpolls.Moreover, as Roberto D’Alimonte argued in the Sole 24 Ore last week, Berlusconi will have great dif f icultyconvincing enough of  the remaining ‘undecided’ voters (30-35 per cent) to support him. Especially since,if  this election f ollows the patterns seen at local, regional and European elections over the past f ouryears, turnout should be well below the 80 per cent seen in 2008. So, although Berlusconi has – onceagain – f ought a more impressive campaign than the centre- lef t, it  will almost certainly not be enough.Figure 1: Average performances of main parties in surveys during 2013Source: These averages are based on surveys published between 5 January and 8 February 2013. Thepolling houses included are Demos&Pi, Demopolis, Emg, Ipsos, Ispo, Swg. Seewww.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.itFigure 2: Average performances of main coalit ions in surveys during 2013Source: As above.Nonetheless, although a clear victory f or the centre- lef t seems highly probable in the Chamber ofDeputies – where the leading coalit ion takes 55 per cent of  the seats – the same is not true of  theSenate. Thanks to Italy’s bizarre 2005 electoral law (which all parties have crit icised f or years, but f ailedto change), the majority bonus in the Senate is decided not on the basis of  who scores highestnationally, but on a region-by-region basis. To cut a long story short, if  the centre- lef t does not win theSenate election in the key region of  Lombardy (now being dubbed Italy’s ‘Ohio’), it will almost certainly nothave a majority in Italy’s upper house given that another large region, Veneto (Italy’s ‘Nebraska’ perhaps)will almost def initely vote centre-right. If  that is the case, the only plausible move f or the PD leader,Pierluigi Bersani, will be to seek a post-electoral accord with Mario Monti’s centrist alliance.From one point of  view, that might be a good thing: given the inevitably dif f icult years ahead and the needto rebuild societal consensus, it does not seem ideal f or Italy to be run solely by a centre- lef tgovernment which gains well under 40% of  the vote. From another perspective, however, a ‘rainbowcoalit ion’ stretching f rom the f ar- lef t Nichi Vendola of  SEL to the social democrats of  the PD to thecentrists, neo- liberals and f ormer f ar-Right members of  Monti’s hotchpotch alliance does not seemdesigned to ensure governmental stability. Such a scenario of  course is predicated on all sides acceptingit – something which is not guaranteed. Indeed, a recent survey showed that although 79 per cent of  PDvoters would approve of  a coalit ion with Monti, only 47 per cent of  SEL ones agreed.Although the centre- lef t campaign so f ar has been largely uninspiring (and unsuccessf ul if  we judge bythe polls), there are several important posit ives which are worth highlighting.First, the predictions that the hard-f ought primary between Bersani and Matteo Renzi would leave aresidue of  bitterness in the election campaign have proved unf ounded. On the contrary, Renzi hasactively campaigned at grassroots level with, and f or, Bersani.Second, despite Berlusconi and Monti’s rhetoric about promoting young people and women, the PD andSEL perf orm better on both counts. As we can see f rom Figures 3 and 4 below – in which we havecalculated the number of  women and people born since 1978 among the top 10 posit ions (i.e. with betterchances of  election) in candidate lists f or the Chamber of  Deputies constituencies – it is the centre- lef twhich has responded best to public demand f or renewal in the polit ical class. SEL (45.9 per cent) and thePD (39 per cent) are the two parties with most women among the f irst 10 candidates in the variousconstituencies, while they also score well compared to their main competitors as regards the promotionof  younger candidates. This bodes well f or the f uture of  the centre- lef t.Figure 3. Percentage of women among top 10 candidates in party lists for Chamber of Deputiesconstituencies Figure 4. Percentage of those born in 1978 or after among top 10 candidates in party lists forChamber of Deputies constituenciesAf ter the posit ives, back to the negatives: as we enter the f inal 10 days bef ore the vote, Bersani’scampaign is increasingly resembling that of  Romano Prodi in 2006 when the centre- lef t coalit ion was wellahead in the polls and conducted a ‘what we have, we hold’ campaign. This almost ended up in a shockBerlusconi victory, with Prodi’s alliance winning by just 0.1 per cent. Bersani does not seem to haveentirely learned that lesson. Rather, he has played a waiting game which has allowed both Berlusconi andMonti to set the agenda. Moreover, in terms of  visibility, recent data show that Bersani has been f ar lessprominent than Berlusconi and Monti on mainstream media and, compared to other candidates, hispresence on social networks is negligible. As regards content, beyond vague platitudes about what thecentre- lef t would do in government, Bersani’s communications have f ocused on attacking Berlusconi(same old story) and reaching out to Monti (which suggests weakness and annoys SEL).Given the centre- lef t ’s lead is currently double that of  Prodi’s in 2006 at the same stage, this should notprove f atal. However, it shows once again that the centre- lef t ’s inability to communicate and campaignef f ectively remains a key problem. They should get away with it this t ime, but the outcome will almostcertainly be a lot less comf ortable than it ought to have been.This article is a part of the State of the Left – Policy Network’s monthly insight bulletin that reports fromacross the world of social democratic politics.Please read our comments policy before commenting.Note:  This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of EUROPP – European Politics andPolicy, nor of the London School of Economics.Shortened URL for this post: http://bit .ly/W6m0VE _______________________________About the AuthorsDuncan McDonnell – European University Institute, FlorenceDuncan McDonnell is Marie Curie Fellow in the Department of  Polit ical and Social Sciencesat the European University Institute in Florence. He is the co-editor of  Twenty-FirstCentury Populism (Palgrave, 2008), the 2012 ‘Polit ica in Italia/Italian Polit ics’ yearbook andhas recently published on the Lega Nord, Outsider Parties and SilvioBerlusconi’s personal parties. He is currently working with Daniele Albertazzi on a bookentit led ‘Populists in Power’ which will be published by Routledge. He tweetsat @duncanmcdonnell.Giuliano Bobba -  University of TurinGiuliano Bobba is a Lecturer at the Department of  Culture, Polit ics and Society in theUniversityof  Turin. His research interests include: polit ical communication and electioncampaigns; the evolution of  polit ical parties and leadership in Western democracies; theEuropean integration process and the development of  a European public sphere. He haspublished in particular on media and polit ics in Italy and France. He is the manager ofthe Polit ical Communication Observatory website in Turin.Related posts:1. In the 2013 Italian elections the centre- lef t coalit ion is almost certain to win a majority in theChamber of  Deputies, but is very unlikely to win a majority in the Senate. (15.9)2. Silvio Berlusconi’s anti-European rhetoric means that he may yet hold the balance of  power af ternext year ’s Italian elections. (12.9)3. Beppe Grillo’s unexpected rise makes him the Italian (non)polit ician of  the year (15.3)

The Italian centre-left is stalling in the campaign, but (probably) not in the election

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