Support is growing for a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. Thomas Raines examines the demographics of British Euroscepticism and notes that the wording of any referendum question is crucial

Raines, Thomas

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LSE Research Online

blo gs.lse.ac.uk http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/po liticsandpolicy/archives/25518Euroscepticism is most common in Wales, the Midlands andamong the over-60s.The wording of any potentialreferendum question will be crucialSupport is growing for a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union.Thomas Raines examines the demographics of British Euroscepticism and notes that thewording of any referendum question is crucial. Next year will mark 40 years since Britain joined the European Economic Community butthe odds on the UK remaining within the EU f or another decade are lengthening f ast.Momentum is building f or a ref erendum on Brit ish membership. Driven by a core of  deeplyEurosceptic Conservative MPs, a belligerent press, and a section of  the electorate thatviews Brussels with open hostility, a ref erendum now has supporters f rom a variety of  polit ical coloursand backgrounds, including some prominent pro-Europeans.While the euro crisis seems likely to push the countries that use the euro – and probably thosecommitted to joining it – into a f ull f iscal union, it appears to be exerting a centrif ugal f orce on the UK.Lacking the ideological attachment to the post-war European integration project of  other EU memberstates, the UK’s relationship with the EU has always been transactional: do the benef its outweigh thecosts? With the European economy in such bad shape, and with the EU f acing a polit ical crisis assignif icant as its economic one, the advantages of  membership are more dif f icult to articulate. CouldBritain, so of ten an awkward partner in Europe, really walk away? The results of  the recent ChathamHouse-YouGov Survey 2012* sketch the contours of  a possible ref erendum campaign.Euroscepticism by the numbersOverall, the Brit ish public is strongly in f avour of  a ref erendum on membership of  the EU. 57 per centbelieve the government should commit to holding a ref erendum, with only 26 per cent opposed. There isalso a near majority of  support f or a public plebiscite amongst voters f rom each of  the three mainparties, as shown in Figure 1 below. The survey makes clear the challenge f acing any pro-Europecampaign.  If  the ref erendum was announced tomorrow, a ‘yes’ campaign would start almost 20 pointsbehind in the polls: almost half  the country would currently vote to leave the EU.Figure 1 – Support for an EU referendum by voting intentionSource: http://chathamhousesurvey.org/Euroscepticism has long been common in Britain. The poll demonstrates that the less common pro-European opinion is distributed unevenly around the country, as Figure 2 shows. Scots tend to be themost in f avour of  remaining in the EU. Voters there are almost evenly split – 40 per cent in f avour, 41 percent against, a statistical t ie (a f act that could have implications f or the other planned UK ref erendum, asthe question of  what Scotland’s potential posit ion would be as an independent state is up f or debate).The pattern of  support f or Europe does not correlate f ully with tradit ional party polit ical geography. Theregions least supportive of  EU membership are the Midlands and Wales. Although not tradit ionallyConservative leaning, voters there strongly f avour leaving the EU, 52 per cent to 26 per cent, more thanin London, the South or the North.Figure 2 – How would you vote in a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union?(General Public)Source: http://chathamhousesurvey.org/However, it is with age that opinion on Europe varies most widely. The only demographic group oldenough to have been able to vote in Britain’s last ref erendum are predominantly Eurosceptic. AmongBritons aged 60 and over, 61 per cent would vote to leave the EU, against just 28 per cent who supportremaining in the Union. But among younger voters, the situation is completely reversed. More 18-24 yearolds would vote to remain in the Union than leave (39 per cent to 29 per cent), although a higherproportion of  this group is undecided. Could a ‘yes’ campaign mobilise a younger generation in supportof  a European f uture f or Britain?Our poll of  opinion-f ormers – leaders f rom a range of  sectors including business, government, NGOsand the media – reveals a Brit ish elite that diverges widely f rom the public. As Figure 3 illustrates, Thisgroup tends to oppose a ref erendum (53 per cent to 42 per cent), and if  given a say on membership, asolid majority – 63 per cent – would vote to remain in the EU. Opinion-f ormers tend to think the UK’sclosest t ies should be to the EU, rather than the US or emerging economies like China or India, and theyhave a more balanced view of  the benef its (they cite f reedom to travel, f ree trade and peace andsecurity) and costs (bureaucracy and a loss of  national power) of  membership.Figure 3 – How would you vote in a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union?(Opinion-formers)Source: http://chathamhousesurvey.org/Does the UK have a European future?The phrasing of  any ref erendum question will be crucial, in particular whether the choices are wider than‘leave’ or ‘stay’. The poll shows that, f ar f rom the EU f ounders’ vision of  ‘ever closer union’, the publicwould pref er to draw back f rom Europe. But leaving is not the most popular choice. When presented witha broader range of  options f or f uture European integration than simply ‘in or out’, the most popular viewamong the public is f or a looser conf ederation, more akin to a f ree trade area, rather than completewithdrawal.A ref erendum that endorsed this view would create a polit ical mandate f or the Brit ish government –whatever its hue – to renegotiate terms with Brussels, with a view to repatriating powers. It is f ar f romclear though what terms would be on of f er to the UK. It seems unlikely that other EU states would bewilling to allow the UK to maintain the benef its of  access to the single market whilst opting out of  otherobligations and costs that come with membership. And even if  such an of f er were available, the UK wouldstill be bound by a great deal of  European regulation but with potentially less inf luence, perhaps even nosay at all, over how that regulation is decided. In this situation, is Britain prepared to be Norway withoutthe oil?——*YouGov conducted two surveys on behalf of Chatham House. The first was of a representative sample of2,079 adults. This fieldwork was undertaken between 13 and 15 June 2012. The survey was carried outonline and the figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18 and over). Thesecond survey was conducted using the YouGovStone panel and surveyed 735 panellists onYouGovStone’s panel of influential adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 14 and 21 June 2012. Thesurvey was carried out online.The original version of this article will appear in the August/September edition of The World Today.Note:  This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of the British Politics and Policy blog,nor of the London School of Economics. Please read our comments policy before posting.About the authorThomas Raines coordinates the Europe Research Programme at Chatham House. Previously, he workedas an analyst in the Strategy Unit of  the Foreign & Commonwealth of f ice in London. He is the co-authorof  the Chatham House Report A Diplomatic Entrepreneur: Making the Most of the European ExternalAction Service (2011), with Staf f an Hemra and Richard Whitman.You may also be interested in the following posts (automatically generated):1. Does devolution bring welf are improvements? Evidence f rom Spain shows that giving Scotland andWales the power to set speed limits might save lives across the UK (15.9)2. The EU Ref erendum rebellion has lef t David Cameron with litt le room to manoeuvre and is pickingapart his liberal conservative project (15.7)3. Recent events in Europe and the Middle East have challenged the coalit ion government to revisitits engagement with Europe. (5)

Euroscepticism is most common in Wales, the Midlands and among the over-60s.The wording of any potential referendum question will be crucial

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