This paper estimates the direct and indirect socio-economic impacts of the
2000 flood that took place in the Po river basin (Italy) using a combination
of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and Spatial and Multi-Criteria
Analysis. A risk map for the whole basin is generated as a function of hazard,
exposure and vulnerability. The indirect economic losses are assessed using
the CGE model, whereas the direct social and economic impacts are estimated
with spatial analysis tools combined with Multi-Criteria Analysis. The social
impact is expressed as a function of physical characteristics of the extreme
event, social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The results indicate that
the highest risk areas are located in the mountainous and in the most
populated portions of the basin, which are consistent with the high values of
hazard and vulnerability. Considerably economic damages occurred to the
critical infrastructure of all the sectors with the industry/commercial sector
having the biggest impact. A negative variation in the country and industry
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was also reported. Our study is of great interest
to those who are interested in estimating the economic impact of flood events.
It can also assist decision makers in pinpointing factors that threaten the
sustainability and stability of a risk-prone area and more specifically, to
help them understand how to reduce social vulnerability to flood events