A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for the
German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global climate model
data. This method is based on the empirical approach for estimating storm
surge heights using information about wind speed and wind direction. Here, we
hypothesize that storm surge events are caused by high wind speeds from north-
westerly direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event
affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40 data,
using the data from the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is shown that using
information of both wind speed and direction as well as large-scale wind storm
events improves the identification of storm surge events. To estimate possible
future changes of potential storm surge events, we apply the new
identification approach to an ensemble of three transient climate change
simulations performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model under A1B greenhouse gas
scenario forcing. We find an increase in the total number of potential storm
surge events of about 12 % [(2001–2100)–(1901–2000)], mainly based on changes
of moderate events. Yearly numbers of storm surge relevant events show high
interannual and decadal variability and only one of three simulations shows a
statistical significant increase in the yearly number of potential storm surge
events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in the maximum intensity and
duration of all potential events is determined. Extreme value statistic
analysis confirms no frequency change of the most severe events