Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with
population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary
prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to
decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for
fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk
factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these
risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative
risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and
Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality
statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were
independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on
cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and
5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower
according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for
Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major
CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated
charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people
(10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This
recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to
changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the
identification of people with a high CVD risk
