We propose a predictive model of structural
changes in elementary subgraphs of social network based on
Mixture of Markov Chains. The model is trained and verified
on a dataset from a large corporate social network analyzed
in short, one day-long time windows, and reveals distinctive
patterns of evolution of connections on the level of local
network topology. We argue that the network investigated in
such short timescales is highly dynamic and therefore immune
to classic methods of link prediction and structural analysis,
and show that in the case of complex networks, the dynamic
subgraph mining may lead to better prediction accuracy. The
experiments were carried out on the logs from the Wroclaw
University of Technology mail server
