Moonwatch program observations of satellite orbits - decay prediction tabl

Hirst, W. P.

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SEMIANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT NO. 6 
NsG 563 
William P. Hi r s t  
1 December 1966 - 31 May 19d7 
Smiths onian Institution 
Cambridge, Massachusetts,  021 38 
As t r op hy s i c a 1 0 b s e r va t o r y 
n 0 -  N 6 7 - 1 1 4 5 0  I 
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. .  
SEMIANNUAL PROGRESS R E P O R T  NO. 6 
NsG 563 
William P. Hi r s t  
1 December 1966 - 31 May 1967 
Smiths onian Institution 
Cambridge, Massachusetts,  021 38 
Astrophysical Observatory 
706- 16 
Semiannual P r o g r e s s  Report  No. 6 NsG 563 
1 December 1966 - 31 May 1967 
P r e p a r e d  by William P. Hirs t  
In  accordance with the requirements  of the grant  document and a s  
fu r the r  detailed in NASA le t te r  SC-NsG-563 dated 13 Apri l  1964, the fol- 
lowing r epor t  of activit ies f o r  the period 1 December 1966 through 31 May 
1967 is submitted. 
The  a r rangement  whereby Moonwatch receives  decay predictions f r o m  
NORAD has worked sat isfactor i ly  a p a r t  f r o m  sQme slight disruption during 
NORAD's change of qua r t e r s .  
The  Volunteer Flight Officers Network organized by Denver Moonwatch 
Frequent  reports  a r e  received f rom obse rve r s  in this continues to  expand. 
Network. 
Only one sighting of a decaying satel l i te  f rom the ground has  been reported 
during the period under review. 
A special  effort was made to  obtain observations of 66-114 A (Biosat A) 
during and immediately pr ior  t o  decay, but without success .  
I Predict ions 
The receipt  of predictions f r o m  Space Defense Center  was somewhat 
disrupted during the move f r o m  Colorado Springs to  Cheyenne Mountain, 
but not ser iously.  
decays with any confidence m o r e  than 5 o r  6 hours  ahead. 
able  communication delays , this has somet imes  caused predictions to  r e a c h  
P r e s e n t  high solar  activity is making it difficult to predict  
Owing to  unavoid- 
the observers  too late.  This happened when 67-12 B was coming in: In fact ,  
no predictions a t  a l l  were  available and t h e  decaying object was only seen by 
accident. (See below. ) 
In the 6 months covered by this report ,  there  have been 162 announced 
decays.  Of these, S A 0  predicted 28, of which 15 decayed within the estimated 
uncertainty of the prediction. 
within the uncertainty bracket.  
found i n  the Appendix. 
NORAD predicted 47, of which 40  decayed 
Full details of these predictions will be 
I1 Geographical Coverage 
Several  new Moonwatch teams have been recruited,  some of them in  
a r e a s  not previously covered. 
countries (including the U.  S. A. ). 
There is now a total of 160 teams, in 23 
The Volunteer Flight Officers Network, organized by Denver Moonwatch, 
now has 66 a i r l ines  participating, with headquarters  in 36 countries. It i s  
estimated that these cover nearly 2 million unduplicated a i r  mi les  and that 
about 30,000 crew m e m b e r s  a r e  involved. 
111 Communications 
The situation i s  substantially unchanged since the las t  report  was sub- 
mitted a year  ago. 
IV  Obs e rvations 
Only one decay, that of 67-12 B, has been reported seen f rom the 
ground. 
by Van Nuys Moonwatch. 
As stated above, this was not predicted and was seen by accident 
This decay was also seen by severa l  m e m b e r s  of the VFON. 
2 
There  were,  in a l l ,  41 reports of sightings of 14 decaying satell i tes by 
flight personnel in  the l a s t  6 months. 
objects a r e  a t  present  being investigated. 
A fur ther  34 sightings of doubtful 
No positive observations of Biosat A (66-114 A )  were  reported,  in spite 
of careful s e a r c h  by many observers .  
the West coast  of Australia.  A negative report  f rom Adelaide Moonwatch, 
m e m b e r s  of which team were  watching under c lear  skies,  makes i t  appear 
probable that it did not reach  the East coast of the continent. 
The satell i te is known to  have c rossed  
V Instrumentation 
A new type of altaz mount has been distributed to selected Moonwatch 
teams.  
direction. 
objects such a s  decaying satell i tes.  
This mount allows the telescope to be moved quickly in any desired 
It i s  therefore  well suited to the observation of rapidly moving 
3 
APPENDIX 
Satel l i t  e 
6 6 - 1 0 4 c  
66-51A 
66-36A 
66-61A 
66-  108B 
65-52A 
6 6 - l l 6 P T  
66-1 03A 
66-115B 
66-65A 
66-80A 
66-99C 
6b-99B 
66-99A 
66-1 14C 
66-1 14D 
66-99D 
66-1 14B 
67-04B 
62BT5  
62 BT 1 
bb - l14A 
67-12B 
65-95B 
67-16A 
67- 1 7 B  
b7-15A 
66-51C 
66-1 1 2 B  
6b-LlA 
57-21B 
67-22B 
57-24B 
57-25B 
5 5 - cj 5A 
77 -24A 
57-30B 
'16- 1 1  2A 
'j7-23B 
)7- 33B 
> 7 - L 9 A  
j7 -  32R 
j7 -37B 
J t I  - 1 0 1 G 
17-23A 
)7 -28B 
) 7 - 4 9 8  
)7-46B 
)7 -44B 
)7 -38B 
S A 0  
P r e d .  on P r e d i c t i o n  
Nov. 25 
Dec. 3 
Dec.  1 3  
Dec. 25 
Jan .  1 
Jan .  1 
J a n .  5 
Jan .  5 
F e b .  1 
F e b .  4 
Feb .  14  
Feb. 10 
M a r .  6 
M a r .  6 
F e b .  27 
M a r .  8 
M a r .  8 
M a r .  15 
M a r  15 
M a r .  2; 
M a r .  1 (  
A p r .  5 
A p r .  9 
A p r .  10 
Apr .  30 
May 4 
May  14 
M a y  14 
D 311900 
1 1  1 0 0 0 0  
18/090O 
J 1 /0700  
5 11600 
1 010000 
1 0  12000 
11 10500 
F 511800 
910900 
15/1000 
21 /oooo 
M 8 /0000  
9 10200 
2010000 
14 / O O O O  
15/0000 
18 l o 8 0 0  
18 /1800  
2910900 
A 310000 
8 12000 
1 3  121 00 
1411200 
M 2/1800 
7 11800 
2311600 
28/0000 
- * - 
1200 
1200 
2400 
2400 
1200 
2400 
1200 
2400 
1200 
1000 
0300 
2400 
1200 
1200 
2400 
2400 
1200 
1200 
1200 
1200 
2400 
2400 
1200 
1200 
1200 
0800 
2400 
4800 
NORAD 
P r e d .  on P r e d i c t i o n  
1 110829 
3/0705 
211745 
1011 61 7 
10 10744 
1811945 
23/0308 
2310848 
27/1750 
2911621 
30/0115 
31 1121 5 
910534 
10/0458 
1010458 
11 10001 
2210732 
2712106 
? 511344 
8/1045 
15/0011 
151051 5 
2012205 
4 812213 
11 /1812 
1210433 
14/1919 
18/1754 
1910331 
22/0520 
2410318 
30/1900 
2 2/2220 
610555 
1 1  /0946 
1011525 
14/0547 
1610536 
15 /21  1 5  
19/0555 
2411 81 5 
vl 710900 
21 /2353 
24 10500 
28/01 35 
2911235 
r 412329 
3 111542 
311503 
310403 
1 0 / 1 048 
1812325 
23/0703 
2311226 
2811218 
2911822 
30/0834 
31 11703 
9/0957 
1010924 
1011312 
11 10507 
22/1028 
28 /0126  
F 511514 
910959 
1510348 
1610600 
1012202 
r 510338 
21/0112 
b i  9 /0412  
11 12247 
15/01 30 
1812220 
19 /0628  
2210734 
2411220 
3012039 
4 211500 
711225 
11 11551 
12 /1749  
16/1311 
171091 5 
1911 146 
12/0629 
14/0936 
2412201 
M 711316 
221021 9 
2411031 
2811544. 
2911722 
0030 
01 30 
0045 
01 00 
0030 
01 00 
0045 
01 30 
0600 
01 00 
01 00 
01 00 
01 00 
0200 
0200 
0200 
01 00 
0200 
0200 
0045 
0300 
0030 
0300 
0030 
01 00 
01 00 
01 00 
01 00 
01 00 
01 30 
0045 
0200 
0045 
1200 
01 00 
01 30 
0600 
0045 
01 00 
04 00 
01 30 
01 00 
0100 
01 00 
0500 
0300 
01 00 
ACTUA 
T i m e  
D 111443 
311 525 
3 10403 
1012148 
1011034 
181231 5 
2310640 
23/1243 
2811 109 
29/1859 
3010730 
31 11703 
J 510325 
911211 
10/0832 
1011 327 
11 10440 
2211149 
2810051 
F 511507 
91031 5 
15 10345 
161041 6 
M 612330 
9/0321 
11 /2232 
1210637 
1 5 10040 
1812125 
19 /0428  
2210701 
30 /2021 
A 210550 
711 648 
11 11522 
1211403 
14/0935 
1 6 1 1  114 
1711 038 
1911221 
2412120 
M 611200 
711215 
22/01 36 
24 10904 
2911 200 
29 11 432 
21 I01 12 
2411120 
2811 530 
- 
f 
001 0 
001 0 
001 0 
001 5 
001 5 
001 5 
001 0 
0110 
0030 
0003 
001 5 
0003 
001 2 
0030 
001 2 
0020 
001 0 
0030 
001 0 
0020 
0020 
0003 
0003 
0004 
0030 
001 5 
001 0 
001 0 
0020 
002 0 
001 5 
001 5 
001 0 
0020 
01 00 
001 0 
001 5 
0006 
001 5 
0005 
0003 
0003 
0005 
1200 
001 5 
001 5 
001 0 
001 5 
1200 
0005 
4 


A study for the search, recovery and analysis of space fragments Semiannual progress report, 1 Dec. 1966 - 31 May 1967

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