Simulasi Dampak Peningkatan Demand Terhadap Energi Listrik Dalam Pemodelan Pengoperasian Waduk Kaskade

Abstract

. Increase of demand especially for raw water of non irrigation at this time is relatively uncontrollable systematically in spatial framework. This is becuase of the economic growth that stimulates urbanization rapicly and centralized in certain region. River basin as the hidrology region that support the sustainability of water resource is relatively constant and decrease from time to time affected by the river basin development without considering environmental aspect. Therefore, in order to utilize water resource for meeting energy and water demand, it is necessary to consider both interests in which the demand increase may affect the energy production and influence the sustainability of services for both interests based on the targets of the reservoir development. In this research, the model is developed in order to see the effect and the livel of significancy especially during dry period. On the other hand, the simulation has been carried out to analyze the trade off between energy production and water demand (irrigation and non irrigation) during dry period. This study is carried out in Cascade Citarum Reservoir (Saguling, Cirata dan Jatiluhur) in Citarum River Basin, West Java. Level of service will be the output of the trade off analysis between the interests of the energy production and water demand based on the each target. The model is solved by using Non Linear Programming (NLP) with Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) Method based on the the scenario of maximizing energy within different water demand (20%D, 40%D, 60%D, 80%D, 100%D, 110%D). The result of simulation model shows that the demand increase would affect the decrease of energy production and it is relatively significant especially during the dry period