贫困问题是著名的“三P”（pollution，population，poverty）问题之一。虽然技术逐渐进步和物质逐渐丰富，人类生活质量逐渐提高，但是贫困始终存在于各个国家和地区。本文研究的是基于CHNS的微观数据，考察金融发展如何影响家庭贫困率和贫困深度。利用12个省市的存贷款/GDP和存贷款比和失业率等数据，采用randomeffect模型，以家庭人均收入是否处于贫困线以下作为被解释变量，家庭人均收入处于贫困线以下设为1，家庭人均收入处于贫困线以上设为0，将家庭特征、户主特征和金融发展指标作为解释变量，如家庭规模、学生人口占家庭人口比、60岁以上老年人占家庭人口比及6岁以下儿童占家庭人口...In this paper, we study the relationship between financial development and poverty, using China health and nutrition survey (CHNS) data and twelve provinces’ data of the deposit/GDP、loan/GDP、deposit/lending, unemployment ratio from 1991-2011, by using the probit random effect model,use the family poverty as a binary dependent variable, the family characteristics such as the numbers of families, st...学位：经济学硕士院系专业：经济学院_西方经济学学号：1722013115199

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Xiamen University Institutional Repository

学校编码：10384 分类号 密级学号：17220131151998 UDC硕 士 学 位 论 文贫困率与金融发展—基于 CHNS的微观数据分析Poverty rate and financial development-Based on the CHNS micro data analysis王苗指 导 教 师：陈贵富副教授专 业 名 称：西方经济学论文提交日期：2016年 4月论文答辩时间：2016年 4月学位授予日期：2016年 6月答辩委员会主席：评 阅 人：2016年 月厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库厦门大学学位论文原创性声明本人呈交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下,独立完成的研究成果。本人在论文写作中参考其他个人或集体已经发表的研究成果，均在文中以适当方式明确标明，并符合法律规范和《厦门大学研究生学术活动规范（试行）》。另外，该学位论文为（ ）课题（组）的研究成果，获得（ ）课题（组）经费或实验室的资助，在（ ）实验室完成。（请在以上括号内填写课题或课题组负责人或实验室名称，未有此项声明内容的，可以不作特别声明。）声明人（签名）：年 月 日厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库厦门大学学位论文著作权使用声明本人同意厦门大学根据《中华人民共和国学位条例暂行实施办法》等规定保留和使用此学位论文，并向主管部门或其指定机构送交学位论文（包括纸质版和电子版），允许学位论文进入厦门大学图书馆及其数据库被查阅、借阅。本人同意厦门大学将学位论文加入全国博士、硕士学位论文共建单位数据库进行检索，将学位论文的标题和摘要汇编出版，采用影印、缩印或者其它方式合理复制学位论文。本学位论文属于：（ ）1.经厦门大学保密委员会审查核定的保密学位论文，于 年 月 日解密，解密后适用上述授权。（ ）2.不保密，适用上述授权。（请在以上相应括号内打“√”或填上相应内容。保密学位论文应是已经厦门大学保密委员会审定过的学位论文，未经厦门大学保密委员会审定的学位论文均为公开学位论文。此声明栏不填写的，默认为公开学位论文，均适用上述授权。）声明人（签名）：年 月 日厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库摘要贫困问题是著名的“三 P”（pollution，population，poverty）问题之一。虽然技术逐渐进步和物质逐渐丰富，人类生活质量逐渐提高，但是贫困始终存在于各个国家和地区。本文研究的是基于 CHNS的微观数据，考察金融发展如何影响家庭贫困率和贫困深度。利用 12个省市的存贷款/GDP和存贷款比和失业率等数据，采用 random effect模型，以家庭人均收入是否处于贫困线以下作为被解释变量，家庭人均收入处于贫困线以下设为 1，家庭人均收入处于贫困线以上设为 0，将家庭特征、户主特征和金融发展指标作为解释变量，如家庭规模、学生人口占家庭人口比、60岁以上老年人占家庭人口比及 6岁以下儿童占家庭人口比，户主特征如户主年龄、受教育程度、婚姻状况、户主近四周的身体健康状况，以12个省的存贷款/GDP和存贷款比作为解释变量来分析各省金融发展指标以及家庭特征如何影响家庭贫困，研究发现：(1)家庭人口规模、6岁以下儿童占家庭人口比重、学生比重增加将显著增加家庭陷入贫困的可能性，60岁以上老人占家庭人口比重会减轻家庭陷入贫困的可能性；城镇和农村之间贫困率存在显著差异，以家庭处于农村为参照，家庭处于城镇的家庭陷入贫困的可能性更高，以东部为参照组，东北部、中西部地区家庭的贫困率较高；户主受教育水平提高会显著降低家庭陷入贫困的可能性，户主年龄越大，家庭陷入贫困的的可能性越小，户主性别为男性的家庭贫困率较高；户主的婚姻状况为已婚的家庭贫困的可能性较低，户主近四周的有疾病的家庭陷入贫困的可能性越高；(2)存贷款占 GDP比值越高，家庭陷入贫困的可能越低，金融发展规模有利于减少贫困；存贷款比越高，家庭陷入贫困的可能性越低，金融深化不利于减少贫困；(3)各省的失业率也显著影响家庭贫困的可能性，失业率较高的地区家庭陷入贫困的可能性越高；另外利用 12个省市的存贷款/GDP和存贷款比和失业率等数据，采用广义最小二乘法，以贫困线减去贫困家庭的人均年收入的值的对数作为被解释变量，将家庭特征、户主特征和金融发展指标作为解释变量，如家庭规模、学生人口占家庭人口比、60岁以上老人占家庭人口比和 6岁以下儿童占家庭人口比，户主特征如户主年龄、受教育程度、婚姻状况、户主近四周的身体健康状况，12个省的存贷款/GDP和存贷款比作为解释变量来分析各省金融发展指标以及家庭特征如何影响家庭贫困深度，研究发现：(1)家庭人口规模、60岁以上老人占家庭人口比厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库重、6岁以下儿童占家庭人口比重增加会显著加重家庭的贫困深度，学生占家庭人口比重对家庭贫困深度的影响不显著，这说明儿童和老人占家庭人口比重高有可能会恶化家庭的贫困状况；(2)户主的年龄越大、教育年限越长会减缓贫困家庭的贫困深度；相对户主为小学学历的家庭，户主学历为高中或中专和大专以上能显著减轻家庭的贫困深度，户主为初中毕业的家庭对家庭贫困深度的影响不显著；户主已婚的家庭能显著减轻家庭的贫困深度；户主性别对家庭的贫困深度的影响不显著；(3)城乡分布对贫困深度有显著影响，处于城镇的家庭相对农村家庭由于生活成本较高，较容易加重贫困家庭的贫困深度，这说明城镇和农村之间的贫困可能性存在差异；东中西部地区的贫困家庭的贫困深度没有显著差异；失业率上升会加重贫困家庭的贫困深度；(4)金融发展规模和金融发展深度对于家庭贫困深度的影响表现出地域特点：相对于东部地区，东北和中部地区的金融发展规模增加会显著减缓家庭贫困深度，金融发展深度也会显著减缓家庭贫困深度，西部地区的存贷款/GDP和存贷款比对家庭贫困深度的影响不显著。关键词：金融发展；家庭特征；贫困率；贫困深度厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库ABSTRACTIn this paper, we study the relationship between financial development andpoverty, using China health and nutrition survey (CHNS) data and twelve provinces’data of the deposit/GDP、 loan/GDP、 deposit/lending, unemployment ratio from1991-2011, by using the probit random effect model,use the family poverty as abinary dependent variable, the family characteristics such as the numbers of families,student population/family population, the numbers of more than 60 years-old/familypopulation and the numbers of under 6 years-old/family population, the characteristicsof the head of the household such as householder’s age, level of education, maritalstatus, health status, etc., the twelve provinces’ deposit/GDP and lending deposit ratioand unemployment ratio as explanatory variables to analyze how the provincialfinancial development indicators and family characteristics affect family poverty, thestudy found that: (1) the greater the population of family, the more likely the familyfall into poverty,the lower the proportion of people over the age of 60 years old andthe higher the proportion of children under 6 years old, the more likely the family fallinto poverty, the family’s head characteristics such as education level, age and thehead’health of the household significantly affected family’s poverty.(2) the financialdevelopment indicators deposit and lending ratio can significantly affect the family’spoverty.(3) the provincial unemployment ratio may significantly affect the family’spoverty.(4)The older the head of the household,the smaller the poverty of the familydepth;the longer the head of the household of fixed number of year of theeducation,the smaller the poverty of the family depth;the higher the householderdegree,the smaller the poverty of the family depth.(5)the higher of the percentage ofover 60 years-old and the percentage under 6 years-old,the larger the poverty of thefamily depth,which suggest that raising children and supporting the old man is likelyto become the family burden.(6)distribution between urban and rural areas has asignificant influence on the depth of poverty, compared with families incountry,families in the town will significantly increase the depth of the poor families,this shows that regional poverty difference possibily exists between the urban and厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库rural;Rising unemployment will increase the depth of poverty families.in the easternregion for reference,the northeast and central parts of depositloans to GDP ratioincreased significantly reduce the depth of the poor families,the northeast and centralparts of deposit to loan ratio increased significantly increase the depth of the poorfamilies.Which means in constrast to east area,the northeast and central area’s financialdevelopment scale may reduce the depth of the poor families,financial developmentefficiency may increase the depth of the poor families.Key words: financial development; family characteristics; poverty rate; depth ofpoverty厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库目录1 引言............................................................................................................................................. 11.1选题背景及意义..............................................................................................................11.2研究思路和方法..............................................................................................................21.2.1论文结构................................................................................................................ 21.2.2研究方法................................................................................................................ 31.2.3本文创新与不足.................................................................................................. 32 文献综述及理论背景....................................................................................................... 52.1贫困与贫困线.................................................................................................................. 52.1.1贫困的界定............................................................................................................52.1.2贫困的分类............................................................................................................62.1.3贫困线选择的主要考虑因素........................................................................... 62.2贫困的影响因素..............................................................................................................72.3金融发展与贫困率-基于宏观视角............................................................................72.4基于 CHNS的贫困率研究-微观视角....................................................................142.5 理论背景.........................................................................................................................143 数据与描述性统计分析................................................................................................ 163.1中国农村贫困现状....................................................................................................... 163.1.1 贫困标准.............................................................................................. 163.1.2 贫困规模.............................................................................................. 173.1.3 减贫速度.............................................................................................. 183.1.4 贫困人口分布...................................................................................... 193.2宏观层面描述性分析..................................................................................... 203.3微观层面描述性分析..................................................................................... 223.3.1贫困线................................................................................................... 223.3.2家庭主要变量及统计描述................................................................... 253.3.3金融发展指标....................................................................................... 304 计量模型和数据.................................................................................................................334.1计量模型..........................................................................................................................334.2贫困影响因素分析....................................................................................................... 344.3贫困深度研究................................................................................................................ 355 实证结果分析...................................................................................................................... 375.1贫困影响因素分析....................................................................................................... 375.2贫困深度回归结果分析..............................................................................................426 结论及政策含义................................................................................................................ 46参考文献......................................................................................................................................48厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库Contents1 Introduction............................................................................................................................ 11.1 The background and meaning of topic................................................................... 11.2 The ideas and methods of Research.........................................................................21.2.1 Structure of thesis................................................................................................. 21.2.2 The research methods.......................................................................................... 31.2.3 The innovation and deficiency of this paper.................................................. 32 The literature review and Theoretical background...................................... 52.1 The poverty line and poverty..................................................................................... 52.1.1 The definition of poverty.................................................................................... 52.1.2 The classification of the poverty....................................................................... 62.1.3 The main consideration factors of choosing poverty line........................... 62.2 The influence factors of poverty................................................................................72.3 The financial development and poverty - the macro perspective.................. 72.4 Poverty study based on the CHNS - the micro perspective........................... 142.5 Theoretical background............................................................................................ 143 Data with descriptive statistical analysis........................................................... 163.1 The current situation of rural poverty..................................................................163.1.1 Poverty standard..................................................................................................163.1.2 The poverty.......................................................................................................... 173.1.3 The speed of poverty reduction....................................................................... 183.1.4 The distribution of poverty population.................................................................. 193.2 The macro descriptive statistical analysis............................................................203.3 The micro descriptive statistical analysis.............................................................223.3.1 The poverty line.................................................................................................. 223.3.2 The family main variables and statistical description................................ 253.3.3 The financial development indicators............................................................304 Econometric model and Data.................................................................................... 334.1 Econometric model......................................................................................................334.2 The analysis of poverty impact factors................................................................. 344.3 The research of poverty depth................................................................................. 355 The analysis of empirical result................................................................................375.1 The analysis of poverty impact factors................................................................. 375.2 The analysis of the poverty depth regression results....................................... 426Conclusions and policy implications..................................................................... 46Reference.................................................................................................................................... 48厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库   Degree papers are in the “Xiamen University Electronic Theses and Dissertations Database”.  Fulltexts are available in the following ways: 1. If your library is a CALIS member libraries, please log on http://etd.calis.edu.cn/ and submit requests online, or consult the interlibrary loan department in your library. 2. For users of non-CALIS member libraries, please mail to etd@xmu.edu.cn for delivery details. 厦门大学博硕士论文摘要库

Poverty rate and financial development -Based on the CHNS micro data analysis

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Poverty rate and financial development -Based on the CHNS micro data analysis

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