Spanning boreal Ontario, photo chronosequencing was used to observe change
through time in 178 stands comprised at least in part by jack pine (Pinus bansiana
Lamb.). Linked to growth and yield monitoring plot networks and a national climate
model, observed succession was associated to 17 environmental attributes specific to
geographic location, topography, soil conditions, and climate. Through the application
of two non-parametric analytical techniques: regression trees and survival analysis, three
fundamental ecological relationships to succession were identified. Deep sands were
found to be the most influential ecological driver of succession in jack pine-dominated
stands of boreal Ontario, followed by slope gradient and precipitation during the
growing season. Derived cumulative survival probability functions for each of these
variables offers tangible means by which forest forecast models in the region can be
empirically refined
