System dynamics models to assess the risk of mosquito-borne diseases and to evaluate control policies

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a System Dynamics model to study the diffusion and control of disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes albopictus in Italy. This insect is one of the world’s most invasive species, due to the global trade in used tyres, an efficient means of transport of mosquito eggs because they frequently contain small deposits of water. Ae. albopictus is very adaptable to climate change and is spreading rapidly into temperate zones. An outbreak of the “tropical” disease Chikungunya in Italy in 2007 proved that Europe is definitely at risk for Aedes-borne diseases. Although the work described in this paper concerns an application in Italy, it can be adapted to tackle other mosquito-borne diseases in other European countrie