Sims, David

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University of New Hampshire

Scientists Report Improvements In Predicting Avian Bird Flu

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University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Scholars' RepositoryMedia Relations Administrative Offices3-24-2008Scientists Report Improvements In PredictingAvian Bird FluDavid SimsUNH Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and SpaceFollow this and additional works at: https://scholars.unh.edu/newsThis News Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Administrative Offices at University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. It hasbeen accepted for inclusion in Media Relations by an authorized administrator of University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. For moreinformation, please contact nicole.hentz@unh.edu.Recommended CitationSims, David, "Scientists Report Improvements In Predicting Avian Bird Flu" (2008). UNH Today. 388.https://scholars.unh.edu/news/388Scientists Report Improvements in Predicting Avian Bird Fluhttp://www.unh.edu/delete/news/cj_nr/2008/mar/ds24avian.cfm.html[9/8/2016 10:04:49 AM] Scientists Report Improvements In Predicting AvianBird FluMedia Contact:  David Sims 603-862-5369Science WriterInstitute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and SpaceMarch 24, 2008DURHAM, N.H. — In a paper published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy ofSciences (PNAS), modeling results of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1outbreaks in Southeast Asia suggest improved ways to predict where outbreaks will mostlikely occur. This would have significant implications for disease surveillance, riskmanagement, and policymaking.The study, detailed in the paper entitled “Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza riskin Southeast Asia” and co-authored by University of New Hampshire (UNH) scientistXiangming Xiao, looked at how different risk factors contributed to the virus's spread,including the numbers of ducks, geese, and chickens; human population size; rice cultivation;and local topography. The results suggest that, of this mix, people, ducks, and rice farmingintensity are the dominant risk factors in determining the distribution of H5N1 outbreaks inSoutheast Asia.Paddy rice farming in monsoon Southeast Asia varies substantially over space and time. Thisposes a great challenge to gathering data about agricultural land use, in particular, thecropping intensity and crop calendar. To address this, the research team employs advancedsatellite remote sensing technology to map and track the spatial distribution and temporaldynamics of paddy rice using images from the Moderate Resolution ImagingSpectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, part of NASA’s Earth Observing System(eospso.gsfc.nasa.gov).Says Xiao, of the UNH Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS), “InSoutheast Asia, double- and triple- paddy rice cultivation in a year is often associated withfree-grazing ducks. Our results show that monitoring free-grazing duck populations andtracking paddy rice farming by satellite are the most important and effective ways ofpredicting H5N1 outbreaks distribution.”These latest findings reported in the paper are the results from multi-year research projectsby an international team of interdisciplinary (e.g., animal health, epidemiology, environmentalremote sensing) scientists, including researchers from UNH, the Universite Libre de Bruxells,Brussels, Belgium, and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.The research projects are funded by the FAO/UN and the U.S. National Institutes of HealthFogarty International Center as part of the NIH/NSF Ecology of Infectious Disease Program.Says Joshua Rosenthal of the Fogarty International Center at NIH, “Given the potentiallyglobal scale of H5N1 Influenza, predictive tools, such as these being developed by thisresearch team, are an important part of our growing capability to focus local surveillance andScientists Report Improvements in Predicting Avian Bird Fluhttp://www.unh.edu/delete/news/cj_nr/2008/mar/ds24avian.cfm.html[9/8/2016 10:04:49 AM]interventions to manage risks of disease outbreaks in humans and on farms.Adds Xiao, “Satellite-based Earth observations provide rich information on the dynamics ofecosystems and landscapes, and assimilation of Earth observation, in-situ surveillance data,and models offer powerful tools for our society to better understand the ecology andepidemiology of animal-borne infectious diseases.”The paper can be read on the PNAS Early Edition site athttp://www.pnas.org/papbyrecent.shtml.

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Scientists Report Improvements In Predicting Avian Bird Flu

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