Detection and attribution of climate change effects on infectious diseases

Abstract

Infectious agents are likely to be sensitive to climate change if their life cycle includes periods of exposure to ambient conditions. Several studies have attempted to attribute changes in patterns of infectious diseases to recent climate change, such as resurgent malaria in the East African Highlands and the northward expansion of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme disease in Europe and Canada. However, debate continues over the relative importance of climate change compared to social, demographic and other factors. Methods for the detection and attribution of climate change impacts on human infectious diseases have not been clearly defined. There are several areas of contention in the literature on appropriate methods for the detection of climate change effects on infectious diseases, including the availability and appropriate use of climate data, identifying regions where changes are most likely to be observed and the biological importance of small temperature increases and threshold effects. Definitions and strategies for the detection and attribution of climate change impacts on human infectious diseases are discussed and compared to approaches to the detection and attribution of climate change impacts in other fields. ‘Consistency analysis’ is proposed as a feasible methodological approach to address research questions about the impact of recent climate change on infectious diseases