BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Recurrence in lymph node-negative (pN0) colorectal cancer suggests the presence of undetected occult metastases. Occult tumor burden in nodes estimated by GUCY2C RT-qPCR predicts risk of disease recurrence. This study explored the impact of the number of nodes analyzed by RT-qPCR (analytic) on the prognostic utility of occult tumor burden.
METHODS: Lymph nodes (range: 2-159) from 282 prospectively enrolled pN0 colorectal cancer patients, followed for a median of 24 months (range: 2-63), were analyzed by GUCY2C RT-qPCR. Prognostic risk categorization defined using occult tumor burden was the primary outcome measure. Association of prognostic variables and risk category were defined by multivariable polytomous and semi-parametric polytomous logistic regression.
RESULTS: Occult tumor burden stratified this pN0 cohort into categories of low (60%; recurrence rate (RR) = 2.3% [95% CI 0.1-4.5%]), intermediate (31%; RR = 33.3% [23.7-44.1%]), and high (9%; RR = 68.0% [46.5-85.1%], P \u3c 0.001) risk of recurrence. Beyond race and T stage, the number of analytic nodes was an independent marker of risk category (P \u3c 0.001). When \u3e12 nodes were analyzed, occult tumor burden almost completely resolved prognostic risk classification of pN0 patients.
CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic utility of occult tumor burden assessed by GUCY2C RT-qPCR is dependent on the number of analytic lymph nodes
