Markov Chain Monte Carlo confidence intervals

Abstract

For a reversible and ergodic Markov chain $\{X_n,n\geq0\}$ with invariant distribution $\pi$, we show that a valid confidence interval for $\pi(h)$ can be constructed whenever the asymptotic variance $\sigma^2_P(h)$ is finite and positive. We do not impose any additional condition on the convergence rate of the Markov chain. The confidence interval is derived using the so-called fixed-b lag-window estimator of $\sigma_P^2(h)$. We also derive a result that suggests that the proposed confidence interval procedure converges faster than classical confidence interval procedures based on the Gaussian distribution and standard central limit theorems for Markov chains.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/15-BEJ712 in the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm