An Econometric Model of a Firm’s Financial Statements

Abstract

This paper reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to represent a firm’s financial statements. More specifically, the paper aims at showing how a firm’s financial statements can be empirically explained by means of a simultaneous equations structural model connecting macro and microeconomic (market) variables with accounting variables. We also present forecasts for the financial statements. The firm to which the model is applied is a monopoly in the Brazilian domestic market for petroleum products and the largest Brazilian firm in operation. The results obtained are consistent with the expectations associated to the structural model. Applications stemming from the study include financial analysis, forecasting and planning, as well as firm valuation.econometric model, accounting, financial statements, Brazilian firm, simultaneous equations