Investigating Non-Linearities in the Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Trade

Abstract

The article analyzes production and marketing lags in agri-food supply chains that force competitive producers and processors to commit to output targets before prices and exchange rates are realized. We show that export markets act as put options for exporters and an increase in the volatility of the real exchange rate will generally increase exports. Relaxing the assumptions about the real exchange rate distribution and risk preferences of producers and/or processors can introduce non-linearities in the relationship between exports and real exchange rate volatility. This relationship is investigated using the flexible non-linear inference framework of Hamilton (2001). Bilateral export equations for Canadian pork exports to the U.S. and Japan are specified. The empirical model shows that real exchange rate volatility has statistically significant non-linear effects on aggregate pork exports. Moreover, bilateral pork exports are less sensitive to country- specific variables than aggregate volatility in the real exchange rate.Real exchange rate volatility, non-linear flexible inference, production lags, pork exports