A natural prior probability distribution derived from the propositional calculus

Abstract

AbstractA σ-additive probability measure on the real interval [0, 1] is defined by considering the expected values of “randomly chosen” large formulae of the propositional calculus, where the propositional variables are treated as independent random variables on {0, 1} with expected value 12. Although arising naturally from logical and/or cognitive considerations, this measure is extremely complex and displays certain formally pathological features, including infinite density at all points of a certain dense subset of [0, 1]. Certain variantsof the construction are also considered. The introduction includes an account of motivation for the study of such measures arising from a fundamental problem in inexact reasoning