Preliminary space mission design under uncertainty

Abstract

This paper proposes a way to model uncertainties and to introduce them explicitly in the design process of a preliminary space mission. Traditionally, a system margin approach is used in order to take the min to account. In this paper, Evidence Theory is proposed to crystallise the inherent uncertainties. The design process is then formulated as an optimisation under uncertainties(OUU). Three techniques are proposed to solve the OUU problem: (a) an evolutionary multi-objective approach, (b) a step technique consisting of maximising the belief for different levels of performance, and (c) a clustering method that firstly identifies feasible regions.The three methods are applied to the Bepi Colombo mission and their effectiveness at solving the OUU problem are compared