Forecasting Chaotic Events and the Prediction of a Rare Cognitive Ability

Abstract

People often live and work in chaotic environments, and thus need to forecast and control what will happen next. The management of chaos is an apparently rare skill, and it would be valuable to identify and develop this skill in the workforce. Untrained undergraduates (N = 147) forecasted number series from four chaotic attractors of varying levels of complexity. They contributed measurements of 16PF personality traits, general intelligence, field independence, and divergent thinking. The results indicated that field independence and personality traits associated with the creative personality profile were the most frequent correlates of performance on forecasting one to four steps into the future. It should be possible to adapt the experimental results to personnel selection and placement decisions that require the search for talent for forecasting