Kawamura Yukio

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『JournalofAsia－PacificStudies』No・11（October2008）TheDeclineofU．S．HegemonicPowerandaNewPerspectiveontheU・S・－JapanRelationshipYukioKawamura†Although8yearshaspassedalreadysincetheturnofthe21Stcentury，theinternationalsocietyisstilllookingfordeveloplnganeWStyleoforder・Duringthistime，itisoftensaidthattheU・S・thatledthewaronterrorismandthewarinIraqlostitshegemonicpowerintheworld・ItisalsosaidthatthestateoflameduckBushAdministrationwouldworsenheadingintotheendofitsadministrationinJanuary2009・Consideringthispoint・JapanwillfaceacrucialmomentwiththediplomaticabilitywhetheritcanestablishuS－JapanrelationshipaftertheBushAdministrationintermsoffutureprospects．1．TheRealIssuesofTheDecliningU・S・HegemonicPowerAsyouseeasalessonofriseandfallofastatethroughouttheWorldHistory・ifastategoesbeyonditsabilityinmaintainingagoodrelationshipwithotherstates・thestatewouldloseitsdominanceoverthem・Enteringthe21StcenturytheU・S・undertheBush Administration whichlooks to operate under smallgovernment created anenvironmentinwhichmilitaryinvestmentdominatedomesticinvestments・TheU・Shas733militarybasesin120countriesand370，000soldersinordertostrengthenitshegemonicstability・However，aStheresult，theU・SisnotabletoescapefromthechaosoftheWarinAfghanistanandinIraqyet・ThereasonisthattheU・S・isextendingitshegemonicstrengthbeyonditscapacityintheworld・Inaddition，underrapiddevelop一mentofglobalizationintheinternationalsocietyinthe21Stcentury，thereareimplica－tionsthetendencyusingmilitarypowerwouldnotfunctionwellonresolvingvariousproblems・Atpresent，frameworkofglobalsocietytrendingtowardmultiplicity・Wherenotonly theU．S．，but emergingpowerssuchastheEuropeanUnion（EU）aimingtowardsanenlargedEU，Russia，andChinaimplement their ownideaandstrategycomplicatedly・TheEUagreedonaimingtowardsapostmodernsystemandthegradualconstructionofanintegratedhasbeenintheprocessofunificationwhichisnlledwithruleoflaw，internationalrule，negOtiationandinternationalcooperationp－一一aparurOm」nilitary－POWerLOn一上he一也一麺虚，－theU・Sthathasnotreliedoninternq二tionalruleanddependsonitsmilitarypowerforthenationalsecurityhasnotsignedonmaJOrinternationaltreatiessuchasTheKyotoProtocol・etc・Russia，inwhichthecurrentPrimeMinisterPutinhassubstantialdominantpowerintheadministration，hasbeenseekinga“QuietAnti－U・S・Alliance”usingitstacticaldiplomaticstrategyalongwithenergyresources・chinaisconsideredtobearisingmegapowerinthelatterhalfofthe21StcenturyincreasingitspresenceintheinternationalsocietyasthehegemonyoftheU・S・hasbeendeclining．†professor，GraduateSchoolofAsia－Paci丘cStudies，WasedaUniversity－123－YukioKawamuraAlthoughJapanrespectsthepostmodernsystembasedonthebeliefofuniversalpeacealongwiththebeliefsofFranceandGermany，thecoremembersofEU，intheprospectofcurrentdiplomacy，JapanisconsideredtofollowU・Sidiplomaticstrategy．Therefore，unlessJapan candevelopitsowndiplomaticability，itspresenceintheinternationalsocietywouldbescaredaccordinglywiththedeclineofUShegemonicpoweramonginternationalsociety．TheU・S・hasplayedapositiveroleintheworldprovidingpreservationofthreeprinciplessuchasdemocracy・freeeconomy，andmaintenancepeaceinorderfortheU．S・tOeXeCuteitshegemony・EnglishsupportedprevailedthoseandsciencetechnologyU．S・hasexpandedallovertheworldandthosevaluewillneverchange．HowevertheStruCtureOfU・S・hegemonyitselfhasdeclinedsoIclearlywiththeevidencethatonecanSeethechaosinIraq・ThebasicquestioniswhethertheU・S・isfightingforestablishingdemocracyinIraq・FormerPresidentofPakistan・Musharraf，Whowaspositionlnghimselfmoreasdictator，thananallyoftheU・S・runningtheWarinIraq．TheworldisrealizinginconsistenciesofrealversusunderlyingoftheU．S．whichclaimsthatitisfightingfordemocracyintheMiddleEastwithalliessuchasSaudiArabia，Azerbaijan，Kazakstan，TurkmenistaninadditiontoPakistanunderIslamicdictatorships．TheBushAdministrationdefiesstatesovereignty，internationallawand multilateraldoctrinesWhichshouldbetreatedseriouslywhenastateexecutesitsmilitarypoweruponotherStateS・Instead・itplacespriorityonthereactionofAmericanpeoplewhosupporttheBushAdministrationratherthaninternationalresponse・WithsuchapolicyBushAdministrationtendstocreatefrictionsamongotherstatesEventhoughtheU・K・，aSallyoftheU・S・hasfoughttogetherwiththeU．S．thewarinIraq，itsmajorthinktank，0ⅩfordResearchGroup，Criticizedthat“theU．S．willbefightingforterrorismnext30pluslyearSWithoutgettingoutfromquagmire．”AndthethinktankalsoanalyzesthataslongU・SandU・K・keepthemilitarypresenceinIraq，fundamentalistwillpourintoIraqandIraqmightbecomeafertiletraininggroundforterroristswhowanttojoinnewlysuchasinthecaseofAfghanistanin1980S．Duetoheavymilitaryexpenditure，eCOnOmicandmilitarypowerformaintainingU．S・hegemonyfluctuatedgraduallyduetothefacts：increaseindoubletradedeficit，CleardeclineinAutoIndustryandhousingconstructingindustry，aShiftofsettlingaccountCurrenCyfromU・S・DollartoEuro・Underthesecircumstances，SpeCialistsinforeigndiplomacyhavestartedcriticizingthesituationthatU・S・isfacing・AmongmanySpeCialistsinforelgnpOlicies，threeofthem，Kissinger，Brezinski，andScowcroft，Whosepoliticalafhliationsaredifferentfromthoseo theBushAdministrationarethe＿mO鑓recognized・UnexpectedlytheyhavecommonopinionsasDr・Kissingerhassuggestedthat“U・S・needstorealizeitscurrentpowerinordertomakeinternationalrulesandOCCaSions respond better changes to globalization and promote conversations withindividualcountriesの・SincecurrentUSforeignpolicyrunstowardadifferentdirection，intruth，USitselfiscontributingtoitspowerdecrease．2・TheCollapseofTheU．S．CapitalSystemThemainissueforthepresidentialelectionishowtodealwithIraqaswellaswithIran・ThisleadstoaquestionofwhetherattackingIranisaproperchoiceinordertokeepthe U・S・’sownprofit・SinceIranhasattemptedthesettlementofinternationa1－124－TheDeclineofU．S．HegemonicPowerandaNewPerspespectiontheU・S・－JapanRelationshipcrudeoilpricefrombeingdollar－denominatedtoEuro－denominated，Orinmixedcurren－cy－denominated，thisdevelopmentjeopardizedtheU・Sposition・ThecoreproblemoftheIranissueisbasedonthispoint，anditislikelythatiftheU・S・abandonednottoattackIran，Iran，sattemptwouldberealizedandtheU・S・WOuldbeonitswaytoruingraduallywiththedeclineofdollar．While，iftheU．S．decidedtoattackIran，ChinaandRussiacouldpossiblybecameallies．Seeingasthetwocountriescouldsellustreasurieswouldresultinacalamityinmarketandasaresult，U．S．Dollarwouldresultinmassivedecline．TheDollarcouldpotentiallyloseits60yearstatusastheinternationalcurrencystandardandastheresulteachstatecoulddecreaseitsdollarholdingsresultingfurtherdeclineofthedollar・ThepossibilityoftheworstcasescenariofortheU・S・SuChasthecollapseoftheU・S・money market，declineinU・S・treaSurybondbuying，riseinprlmeratemakesthisproblemevenmorecomplicated，In addition to these dollar devaluation，reCently sparked by the subprimeloanproblemtheworldhashadtendsanegativeopinionoftheU・S・financialcapitalsystem・acombinationofrealestate，StOCks，andm？fgerandacquisition（M＆A）・Eventhoughtheriseandfallofthefinancialsystemhasreliedbnthebasicestablishmentofariskevaluationsystemandmonitoringsystem，theseriousnessofsubprimeloanproblemtouchesthebasicpointofriskmanagementsystemwhichcannotberesolvedevenbyexchangingfiⅩedincome to equitiesin the U・S・Where the most modernfinancialtechnologyisused．TheFederalReserveBank（FRB）cutinterestratesdrasticallysothatit seems the credit crunch which existedin the U．S．負nancialmarket was avoidedshortlycausingbadeffectsontherealeconomyofU・S・，anditislikelythatinternationalinvestorsLSelldollar－denominatedtreasurygradually．Whilethisvolatilityofdollar－basedinvestmentbecomesarealityinthedestabiliza－tionininternationaleconomics，eCOnOmicspecialistsinEurope andtheU．S．seethiscreditcrunchaswith：anenOrmOuSOnetOOCCurOnCein30years．Withthiscreditcrunchtheeraoffreeeconomicpolicyerawouldconcluded．ThiswouldtheneffectheavilynotonlyonU・S・eCOnOmyWOrried subprimeloanproblem，butalsoaffect theJapanese economy which has copied and operated similarly the ways of the U・S・financialsystem．3．AgendaofTheNextU．S．AdministrationMany voters think that unless new politicalaspects areincorporatedinto theelectionto the campaigningoftheuS・Whosesuperiority hasbeendeclining，therewouldbenochangetothepresentsituation．A云cordingtoarecbntpolesurveybytheWashingtonPost，“75％ofvotersarepessimisticwiththesituationnowandwanttohaveabreakthroughto BushAdministration’spolicy’’ThetrendtowardsfavoringchangepromotesDemocratnominees・ManyhavecometoviewlittlebylittlethatoneoftheDemocraticnomineeswouldbechosenonNovember4th．ManifestoftheDemocraticnomineefordomesticpolicyisdescribedononeviewwhichiscalled“WashingtonConsensus”（BalancedBudget，taXdeduction，tighteningeconomy，de－regulation，antilaborunionlaws）whichisledmainlybyconservativesincetheReaganAdministrationinthe1980，s andonanotherviewwhichismoreliberal such ashealthcarereform，advocacyofnationalhealthinsurance，andtheir－125－Yukio KawamuraStrategyis making the U．S．united through enriching the social security system．Internationally they show recognition that since the War against terrorism，nuClearnon－prOliferation，andastabilizedworldeconomyareachievednotonlybytheU．S．butbythehelpofothercountries，inwhichcasethetransitionofsomeoftheU．S．powerisunavoidable．IftheDemocratwontheelection，inordertoexecutehealthcarelegislationisthebiggestmanifestothattheDemocratneedsabudgetfor．Inordertomakeabudgetforit，budget for defense expenditure needs to be reduced．Therefore withdrawalofthetroopsfromIraqhastobeaccomplished．Inaccordancewiththegradualwithdrawalofthetroops，itislikelythattheDemocratsintendtoinvolveChinaforsecuritymainte－nance．BoththeDemocratandtheRepublicansseetheEU＆Chinaaskeyplayersforthenextera’sinternationalsociety．HowevertheEUwillbepreoccupiedwhilewithitsproblemssuchasnegotiationswithTurkeyandisnotreadytocommitoninternationalproblems，eVenmilitarily．Therefore，under the next U．S．administration，it seems that newinternationalSyStemWillbestemfromAsiathroughnegotiationsbetweenChinaandtheU．S．Ifso，itislikelythatU．S．－JapanrelatioilShipwouldlace‾difncultsituationsneverbeenexperiencedbytheJapanside．4．BuildingANewU．S．－JapanRelationshipLastyear，theU．S．－Japanrelationshipwasunstable．AfterdirectUS．NorthKoreaCOnference heldinBerlinlastJanuary，U．S：softlinestrategy on NorthKoreahasnotbeenapreferableonetoJapanwhichhastheJapaneseabducteeproblem．TheU．S．hasalwaysmadeaclearpolicydoctrineoneachoccasion．Although，forexample，theU．SCreatedslogansintheWarinIraqforbuildingdemocracyintheMiddleEastandthatawarinAfghanistanisawaronterrorism，OneCannOtSeeanySlogansinNorthKorea．InthebeginningofBushAdministration，NorthKoreawasregardedasoneofthe“AxisofEvil”，anditreinforcedahardlineapproachaimedatRegimechangewhichisSOCalledstructuralchange．ButU．S：demandof“behaviouralchange”toNorthKoreaisnot enough reason to persuadeJapan and U．S．allies，Which has to settle abducteeproblem．ManyJapaneseseetheBushAdministrationadoptpolicieswhereanystatesWhichareagainsttheU．S：sareevilsandwhereanystates，despitebeingdictatorialwhofollowtheUSaretreatedwithmorepriority．Inaddition，JapanesecomfortwomenamendmentwhichwasvotedbyHouselastSPringmadetherelationshipworse．Ontheotherhand，SinceU．S．wasirritatedbytheissueregardingoiltransportationbytheJapaneseSelfDefenseForce（SDF）．Dealingwiththeseissuesisimportant，however，ifyouseefromthedifferentpointOfview，theperiodundertheBushAdministrationendinginJanuary2009iscrucialforJapantodeterminepolicesbyitselfforitsfutureroleinAsia withoutfeelinganypressurefromtheU．S．ItisessentialforJapan tochangethemethodandviewthatwereappliedregardingtheU．S．－Japanrelationshipinthepast．Duringtheir60yearsrelation－Ship，JapanhasoftenbecometiresomeofU．S．forceddemandsandtheU．S．hasclaimedthatdealingwithJapanhas beentough．AsMr．TakahikoSoejimapointedoutinhisbook，“PoliticiansandintellectualcontroIU．S．：WOrldleadership”that previousTreas－ury representative，Mr．Mikky Kanter who played animportantroleinMs．Clinton’S－126－TheDeclineofU．S．HegemonicPowerandaNewPerspespectiontheU・S・－JapanRelationshipelectionheadquarters，WaSarepreSentativefordealingwithJapanesetradenegotiationandverytoughnegotiatorbasedonhiscorebeliefthat“JapanhaspaidU・S・nOthingforitssecurity．Inreturnweshouldclaimforcompensation・”AIso，Mr・WarrenChrist0－pher，Who wastheSecretaryofStateundertheClintonAdministrationrepeatedlycriticize“Japanwouldnotlistentoanyofourdemand・”JamesBaker，WhowasSecretaryofStateundertwodifferentparties，ignoredJapansaying“itisnotsuretowhomweshouldhavenegotiation・Eventhoughitcomestoanagreementwithhim，WearenOtsurewhetherhehastherealpower．AfterallJapanwouldnotkeeppromise，thereisnoneedtogotoJapan．ItissaidofteninWashingtonD．C．thatCurrentSecretaryofState，Ms・RicehasnotturnedhermindtoJapan．ConclusionInthefutureJapanshouldpaymoreattentiontotheantagonismwhichhadbeenexpressedtowardtheJapaneseGovernmentbysuccessiveU・S・gOVernmentOfncersinnegotiationswithJapan・Japan shodld changeits style of．negotiation‾with theロ・S・‾significantly彿fterJanuary2009whenproChinaAdministrationislikelytohighlycomeintoplay・Inotherwords，WhileonthesurfaceJapanofnciallyexpressestheimportanceoftheU・S・－Japanrelationship，1naCtuality，itavoidsandpostponesdemands・Thisstylewilljeopardizethefuturerelationshipandleadtothelackoftransparencylnitspositioningintheinternationalsociety．JapanneedstoconcentrateonauthorizingmorepowertotheirgovernmentalnegotiationteamswiththeU・S・andfocusmoreontheoutcomesthattheseteamscanachieve．Moreoptionsfornationalsecurity，eCOnOmicsandtradeareneeded on theJapan side．For example，in the militaryfield of theimplication ofcollectivesecurity，andlawsandregulationsforsendingSDF，intheeconomicfieldofthe matter ofcreationofacommoncurrencyin Asia，aSWellasin thefieldofFTAnegotiationwitheachcountry，StrOngnegOtiationteamswithclearauthorityontheJapansidemustbecreatedtore－eStablishtheUS－JapanrelationshipandmakeprogressintheAsia－Paci丘creglOn．OverallJapanesediplomacyinmultipleworldsshouldfirstdisregardthepreconcep－tionssofarappliedontheUS－Japanrelationship，andhavestrongoptions，utilizingdomesticassetsfornegotiationwithothercountriesmoreaggressively・Notesl．0Ⅹf。rdR。。。arChGr。。P（2007），ORGYearReport，ChapterofIraqWar．pp．1ij2．2．WashingtonPost，dated230ctober2007・p・5・3．TakahikoSoejima，（1998）“SekaihakenkokuAmericawoUgokasuSeijikatoChishikijintachi，”Tokyo，Kodansha．pp．132－135．Referencesl．AndrewF．Cooper，John English，TameshThakuv（2002），“EnhancingGlobalGovernance，”Tokyo，UnitedNationsUniversity，Press2．MichaelMandelbaum（2005），“ThecaseforGoliath：HowAmericaActsastheWorld’sGovernmentintheTwentyFirstCentury，CambridgeUniversityPress3．JanNoderveonPieterse（2004）“GlobalizationonEmpire”RoutledgePress－127－Yukio Kawamura4．ThomasL．Friedman（2007）“TheWorldisFlat，”pieadorPress，N．Y．5．MichaelMandelbaum（2003）“TheIdeasthatConqueredtheWorld”publicAffairspress，N．Y．6．CesardePrado（2007）“GlobalMulti－LevelGovernance，”Tokyo，UnitedNationsUniversityPress－128－

The Decline of U.S. Hegemonic Power and a New Perspective on the U.S.-Japan Relationship

Kawamura, Yukio

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https://waseda.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=24818&item_no=1&attribute_id=162&file_no=1

The Decline of U.S. Hegemonic Power and a New Perspective on the U.S.-Japan Relationship

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