This paper presents some ideas to reduce the computational cost of
evidence-based robust design optimization. Evidence Theory crystallizes both
the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the design parameters, providing
two quantitative measures, Belief and Plausibility, of the credibility of the
computed value of the design budgets. The paper proposes some techniques to
compute an approximation of Belief and Plausibility at a cost that is a
fraction of the one required for an accurate calculation of the two values.
Some simple test cases will show how the proposed techniques scale with the
dimension of the problem. Finally a simple example of spacecraft system design
is presented.Comment: AIAA-2012-1932 14th AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference.
23-26 April 2012 Sheraton Waikiki, Honolulu, Hawai