Child population density and climate factors are potential determinants of the HFMD incidence in most areas in China. The strength and direction of association between these factors and the incidence of HFDM is spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level, and child population density has a greater influence on the incidence of HFMD than the climate factors

A Gilbert

AB Lawson

AS Fotheringham

CW Tong

Dan Zhao

E Ma

EPJ Boer

FX Abad

J Wang

J Zhang

J Zheng

Jinfeng Wang

Lin Jia

LW Ang

M Bélanger

M Ho

M Porta

Maogui Hu

MF Hutchinson

MY Liu

R Haining

RR Suminski

S Chatproedprai

Shengjie Lai

Vittoria Colizza

Weizhong Yang

WR Tobler

Y Hong

Y Podin

Y Wang

Yansha Guo

Yilan Liao

YL Hii

Zhongjie Li

PLoS ONE

English

PubMed

Background: Over the past two decades, major epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred throughout most of the West-Pacific Region countries, causing thousands of deaths among children. However, few studies have examined potential determinants of the incidence of HFMD. Methods: Reported HFMD cases from 2912 counties in China were obtained for May 2008. The monthly HFMD cumulative incidence was calculated for children aged 9 years and younger. Child population density (CPD) and six climate factors (average-temperature [AT], average-minimum-temperature [AT(min)], average-maximum-temperature [AT(max)], average-temperature-difference [AT(diff)], average-relative-humidity [ARH], and monthly precipitation [MP]) were selected as potential explanatory variables for the study. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used to explore the associations between the selected factors and HFMD incidence at county level. Results: There were 176,111 HFMD cases reported in the studied counties. The adjusted monthly cumulative incidence by county ranged from 0.26 cases per 100,000 children to 2549.00 per 100,000 children. For local univariate GWR models, the percentage of counties with statistical significance (p < 0.05) between HFMD incidence and each of the seven factors were: CPD 84.3%, AT(max) 54.9%, AT 57.8%, AT(min) 61.2%, ARH 54.4%, MP 50.3%, and AT(diff) 51.6%. The R-2 for the seven factors' univariate GWR models are CPD 0.56, AT(max) 0.53, AT 0.52, MP 0.51, AT(min) 0.52, ARH 0.51, and AT(diff) 0.51, respectively. CPD, MP, AT, ARH and AT(diff) were further included in the multivariate GWR model, with R-2 0.62, and all counties show statistically significant relationship. Conclusion: Child population density and climate factors are potential determinants of the HFMD incidence in most areas in China. The strength and direction of association between these factors and the incidence of HFDM is spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level, and child population density has a greater influence on the incidence of HFMD than the climate factors

Hu M. G.

Li Z. J.

Wang J. F.

Jia L.

Liao Y. L.

Lai S. J.

Guo Y. S.

Zhao D.

Yang W. Z.

Institutional Repository of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS

Determinants of the Incidence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models

Crossref

Hu, Maogui

Li, Zhongjie

Wang, Jinfeng

Jia, Lin

Liao, Yilan

Lai, Shengjie

Guo, Yansha

Zhao, Dan

Yang, Weizhong

Southampton (e-Prints Soton)

Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models

Background: Over the past two decades, major epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred throughout most of the West-Pacific Region countries, causing thousands of deaths among children. However, few studies have examined potential determinants of the incidence of HFMD. Methods: Reported HFMD cases from 2912 counties in China were obtained for May 2008. The monthly HFMD cumulative incidence was calculated for children aged 9 years and younger. Child population density (CPD) and six climate factors (average-temperature [AT], average-minimum-temperature [AT(min)], average-maximum-temperature [AT(max)], average-temperature-difference [AT(diff)], average-relative-humidity [ARH], and monthly precipitation [MP]) were selected as potential explanatory variables for the study. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used to explore the associations between the selected factors and HFMD incidence at county level. Results: There were 176,111 HFMD cases reported in the studied counties. The adjusted monthly cumulative incidence by county ranged from 0.26 cases per 100,000 children to 2549.00 per 100,000 children. For local univariate GWR models, the percentage of counties with statistical significance (p &lt; 0.05) between HFMD incidence and each of the seven factors were: CPD 84.3%, AT(max) 54.9%, AT 57.8%, AT(min) 61.2%, ARH 54.4%, MP 50.3%, and AT(diff) 51.6%. The R-2 for the seven factors&apos; univariate GWR models are CPD 0.56, AT(max) 0.53, AT 0.52, MP 0.51, AT(min) 0.52, ARH 0.51, and AT(diff) 0.51, respectively. CPD, MP, AT, ARH and AT(diff) were further included in the multivariate GWR model, with R-2 0.62, and all counties show statistically significant relationship. Conclusion: Child population density and climate factors are potential determinants of the HFMD incidence in most areas in China. The strength and direction of association between these factors and the incidence of HFDM is spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level, and child population density has a greater influence on the incidence of HFMD than the climate factors.http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000305583300075&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8e1609b174ce4e31116a60747a720701Multidisciplinary SciencesSCI(E)45ARTICLE6null

Institutional Repository of Peking University

Determinants of the Incidence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China   Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models

Over the past two decades, major epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred throughout most of the West-Pacific Region countries, causing thousands of deaths among children. However, few studies have examined potential determinants of the incidence of HFMD.], average-relative-humidity [ARH], and monthly precipitation [MP]) were selected as potential explanatory variables for the study. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used to explore the associations between the selected factors and HFMD incidence at county level. 0.62, and all counties show statistically significant relationship.Child population density and climate factors are potential determinants of the HFMD incidence in most areas in China. The strength and direction of association between these factors and the incidence of HFDM is spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level, and child population density has a greater influence on the incidence of HFMD than the climate factors

Hu Maogui

Li Zhongjie

Wang Jinfeng

Jia Lin

Liao Yilan

Lai Shengjie

Guo Yansha

Zhao Dan

Yang Weizhong

Public Library of Science (PLOS)

BackgroundOver the past two decades, major epidemics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred throughout most of the West-Pacific Region countries, causing thousands of deaths among children. However, few studies have examined potential determinants of the incidence of HFMD.MethodsReported HFMD cases from 2912 counties in China were obtained for May 2008. The monthly HFMD cumulative incidence was calculated for children aged 9 years and younger. Child population density (CPD) and six climate factors (average-temperature [AT], average-minimum-temperature [AT(min)], average-maximum-temperature [AT(max)], average-temperature-difference [AT(diff)], average-relative-humidity [ARH], and monthly precipitation [MP]) were selected as potential explanatory variables for the study. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used to explore the associations between the selected factors and HFMD incidence at county level.ResultsThere were 176,111 HFMD cases reported in the studied counties. The adjusted monthly cumulative incidence by county ranged from 0.26 cases per 100,000 children to 2549.00 per 100,000 children. For local univariate GWR models, the percentage of counties with statistical significance (pConclusionChild population density and climate factors are potential determinants of the HFMD incidence in most areas in China. The strength and direction of association between these factors and the incidence of HFDM is spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level, and child population density has a greater influence on the incidence of HFMD than the climate factors

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Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using geographically weighted regression models.

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Determinants of the Incidence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China Using Geographically Weighted Regression Models

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Institutional Repository of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS

Crossref

Southampton (e-Prints Soton)

Institutional Repository of Peking University

Public Library of Science (PLOS)

Public Library of Science (PLOS)

Directory of Open Access Journals