Bohensky, E.

Curnock, M.

Gillet, S.

Goldberg, J.

Gooch, M.

Lankester, A.

Marshall, N.

Newlands, M.

Pert, P.

Scherl, L.

Stone-Jovicich, S.

Tobin, R.

GBRMPA eLibrary

TROPICAL ECOSYSTEMS hubThe Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2014Drivers of Change in theGreat Barrier ReefErin Bohensky, Matt Curnock, Sarah Gillet, Jeremy Goldberg, Margaret Gooch, Ally Lankester, Nadine Marshall, Maxine Newlands, Petina Pert, Renae Tobin, Lea Scherl and Samantha Stone-JovicichTechnical Report          The Social and Economic Long  Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2014 Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef      Erin Bohensky1, Matt Curnock1, Sarah Gillet1, Jeremy Goldberg1,2,  Margaret Gooch3,4, Ally Lankester1, Nadine Marshall1, Maxine Newlands5, Petina Pert1,6, Renae Tobin7, Lea Scherl8 and Samantha Stone-Jovicich1,  1CSIRO Land and Water Flagship; 2College of Business, Law and Governance, James Cook University;  3Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority; 4Cairns Institute, James Cook University; 5School of Arts and Social Sciences, James Cook University; 6College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University; 7Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, James Cook University; 8NQ Dry Tropics NRM             Supported by the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program Project 10.1: Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP)© CSIRO    This report should be cited as: Bohensky, E., Curnock, M., Gillet, S., Goldberg, J., Gooch, M., Lankester, A., Marshall, N., Newlands, M., Pert, P., Tobin, R., Scherl, L., Stone-Jovicich, S. (2014) The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2014, Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef. Report to the National Environmental Research Program. Reef and Rainforest Research Centre Limited, Cairns (56pp.).  Published by the Reef and Rainforest Research Centre on behalf of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program (NERP) Tropical Ecosystems (TE) Hub.  The Tropical Ecosystems Hub is part of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Research Program. The NERP TE Hub is administered in North Queensland by the Reef and Rainforest Research Centre Limited (RRRC). The NERP Tropical Ecosystems Hub addresses issues of concern for the management, conservation and sustainable use of the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and its catchments, tropical rainforests including the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area (WTWHA), and the terrestrial and marine assets underpinning resilient communities in the Torres Strait, through the generation and transfer of world-class research and shared knowledge.  This publication is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for study, research, information or educational purposes subject to inclusion of a sufficient acknowledgement of the source.  The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for the Environment.  While reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication.  Cover Photograph: Matt Curnock  This report is available for download from the NERP Tropical Ecosystems Hub website: http://www.nerptropical.edu.au/research   2014 Table of Contents Overview of the Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program ……………………………………………………….  3 Summary of the Drivers of Change report ……………………………………………………………………………..............   4 Introduction to Drivers of Change ……………………………………………………………………………………………….   5 Approach and Methods …………………………………………………………………………………………………………..   8 Driver Categories for Monitoring ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 14 1.  Economic ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 15 2.  Social and Cultural …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 24 3.  Demographic ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 30 4.  Politics, Management & Governance ……………………………………………………………………………………... 37 5.  Information, Communication and Media ………………………………………………………………………………… 40 6.  Science and Technology …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 45 Examples of Driver Integration through Scenario Analysis in the Region ……………………………………………….….… 51 References ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 55 Appendix: Search Terms Used in Media Analysis ………………………………………………………………………………. 56           SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 1 SELTMP 2014: DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN THE GREAT BARRIER REEF SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 2 • SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 3 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 4 •••  •••• SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 5 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 6 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE      7 B. Human and Community Wellbeing Opportunities,  Empowerment, Security           GBR Ecosystem Services     D. Direct Drivers of Change Climate change  Primary resource industry  activities Coastal  development   Global, Regional & Local Scales   A. Reef Relation-ship  Who?  How many?       Where?   How? When? Why? Worth?    C. Indirect Drivers of Change Economic, Social & cultural, Demographic,  Politics & management, Communication & media, science & technology  SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 8 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 9  SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 10 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 11 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 12 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 13  SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 14 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 15 •••••••• SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 16 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 17 00.20.40.60.811.2USD per 1.00 AUD, monthly average Value of Australian dollar 20112012201320140.840.860.880.900.920.940.960.981.001.021.041.062011 2012 2013 2014USD per 1.00 AUD SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 18 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 19 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 20   SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 21 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 22 •••SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 23 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 24 25 -0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Total Retail0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Food-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Household Goods-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Clothing, footwear and personal accessories-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Department Stores-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Cafes, restaurants and takeway food-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Total Retail0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Food-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Household Goods-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Clothing, footwear and personal accessories-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Dep rtment St res-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010Monthly  percentage change (turnover)Cafes, restaurants and takeway food26 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 27 1 3 3 9 7 17 24 1 2 3 5 7 10 12 2 5 5 7 8 12 13 2 7 7 7 8 12 10 8 21 19 15 19 20 18 7 14 15 12 14 10 9 14 15 18 15 14 9 6 22 16 16 16 12 5 5 20 6 8 7 5 1 1 23 11 6 7 5 2 2 Research InstutionsFriends, family, colleaguesNGO's / similarGovernment managersIndustry groups / repsMediaSocial media1 Low trust 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 High trustSELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 28 ••••SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 29 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 30 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 31 •••••SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 32 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 33 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 34 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 35  ••••••SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 36 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 37 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 38 Legislation, regulation or plan Implementing agency and level Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan (draft) Department of Environment (Federal) The Marine Tourism Contingency Plan for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park GBRMPA (Federal) Dredging and Spoil Disposal Policy (due for review October 2014) GBRMPA (Federal)  Environmental Impact Management Policy  (due for review October 2014) GBRMPA (Federal) QLD Ports Strategy and Ports Bill  Department of State Development, Infrastructure and Planning  (State) Information is at the core of decision-making, and communication and media provide mechanisms for information flows among and between managers, resource users and the public. Media outlets regulate visibility of information, and are instrumental in reflecting and shaping public perceptions about the reef.  “Wishlist” Indicators • Top news stories  • Web searches  • Use of social media • Media representations of GBR • % of population using internet for information  • Sources of and trust in information and networks  SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 39 The news Australians searched for most in 2014 on Yahoo7 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 40 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 41 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 42 0100200300400500600700800number of articles 2011201220132014010020030040050060070020112012201320143444 4506 4327 4427 0100020003000400050002011 2012 2013 2014number of articles 050100150200250300350number of articles 2011201220132014050100150200250300350number of articles 2011201220132014 050100150200250300350number of articles 2011201220132014050100150200250300350number of articles 2011201220132014SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 43 •••••••SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 44 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 45 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 46 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 47 Images: www.terminalu.com; www.designboom.com; shoppingcartandshopper.blogspot.com  SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 48 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 49 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 50 Drivers of Change (Economic,  Socio-Cultural etc.) Future Scenarios SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 52 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 53  SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 54 SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 55  CONTACT Name: Dr. Erin Bohensky Organisation: CSIRO Land and Water Phone: 07 4753 8569 Email: erin.bohensky@csiro.au SELTMP 2014 - DRIVERS OF CHANGE 56 

The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2014: Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef: report to the National Environmental Research Program

The Social and Economic Long Term Monitoring Program (SELTMP) 2014: Drivers of Change in the Great Barrier Reef: report to the National Environmental Research Program

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