Cross border cargo vehicle flows

Abstract

Increases in international merchandise trade plus growth in the northern Mexico maquiladora sector have caused the volume of cargo vehicle flows through border metropolitan areas to expand in recent decades. In order to examine whether the trends associated with these developments can be successfully modeled, short-term time series characteristics of cross-border cargo vehicle traffic through El Paso, Texas are analyzed. Econometric methodologies employed include both univariate and transfer function ARIMA analysis. Data are drawn for the January 1980 - December 1999 sample period. Empirical results indicate that Ciudad Juárez maquiladora employment, El Paso nonagricultural employment, inflation adjusted exchange rate, Mexican industrial activity, and U.S. industrial performance play important roles in determining month-to-month fluctuations in border region cargo vehicle traffic flows