Development and structure of an accurate machine learning algorithm to predict inpatient mortality and hospice outcomes in the coronavirus disease 2019 era

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has challenged the accuracy and racial biases present in traditional mortality scores. An accurate prognostic model that can be applied to hospitalized patients irrespective of race or COVID-19 status may benefit patient care. RESEARCH DESIGN: This cohort study utilized historical and ongoing electronic health record features to develop and validate a deep-learning model applied on the second day of admission predicting a composite outcome of in-hospital mortality, discharge to hospice, or death within 30 days of admission. Model features included patient demographics, diagnoses, procedures, inpatient medications, laboratory values, vital signs, and substance use history. Conventional performance metrics were assessed, and subgroup analysis was performed based on race, COVID-19 status, and intensive care unit admission. SUBJECTS: A total of 35,521 patients hospitalized between April 2020 and October 2020 at a single health care system including a tertiary academic referral center and 9 community hospitals. RESULTS: Of 35,521 patients, including 9831 non-White patients and 2020 COVID-19 patients, 2838 (8.0%) met the composite outcome. Patients who experienced the composite outcome were older (73 vs. 61 y old) with similar sex and race distributions between groups. The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.88, 0.91) and an average positive predictive value of 0.46 (0.40, 0.52). Model performance did not differ significantly in White (0.89) and non-White (0.90) subgroups or when grouping by COVID-19 status and intensive care unit admission. CONCLUSION: A deep-learning model using large-volume, structured electronic health record data can effectively predict short-term mortality or hospice outcomes on the second day of admission in the general inpatient population without significant racial bias