Social Science Research Network published a piece over COVID-19 and includes three UT Affiliates that is published on May 1, 2020.Office of the VP for Researc

Bai, Shunhua

Chen, Yefu

Jiao, Junfeng

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Mapping the Intercounty TransmissionRisk of COVID-19 in New York StateThis paper investigates the COVID-19 transmission risk between differentcounties in the state of New York during the first month of the pandemic andmakes contributions in two areas. First, using the publicly available COVID-19case dataset in the state of New York, this study measures the COVID-19outbreak status in different counties and quantifies their current levels ofseverity. Queens, Kings, Westchester, Nassau, Bronx, Suffolk, and New Yorkwere all identified as the current outbreak centers, in descending order of theirseverity. Then, using the transportation commuting data between differentcounties, we analyze the potential disease spreading risks for all counties. Wefind that Queens, Kings, Westchester, New York, and Monroe were majorspreaders because of high volume, bi-directional commuting patterns. Saratogaand Oneida spread fewer outgoing cases, while Suffolk and Bronx were moreaffected by incoming cases. All other counties in the state are regarded as“community spreaders” with relatively low inter-county commutes, among whichRockland, Richmond, Essex, Orange are at mid-levels of severity in the outbreak.Specific attentions should be given to Monroe, Saratoga, and Oneida, whocurrently have a relatively low severity score but could become the next outbreakcenters due to their significant transportation connections to other counties.Keywords: COVID-19, transmission risk, commuting, New York state5/26/20, 8)43 AMPage 1 of 1

Mapping the Intercounty Transmission Risk of COVID-19 in New York State

You are viewing a publication from UT affiliates that was published in the Good Systems Network Digest in May 2020.Office of the VP for Researc

https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/bitstream/2152/81386/2/Safari%20-%20May%2026%2c%202020%20at%208_43%20AM%20%281%29.pdf

Mapping the Intercounty Transmission Risk of COVID-19 in New York State

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