Menemenlis, D.

Van der Stocken, T.

Open Marine Archive

- 89 - 
 
 
Modeling mangrove propagule dispersal trajectories using high-
resolution estimates of ocean surface winds and currents 
Van der Stocken Tom
1
 and Menemenlis Dimitris
2 
1
  Ecology and Biodiversity, Biology Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Elsene, 
Belgium 
E-mail: tvdstock@gmail.com  
2 
Earth Science, Jet Propulsion Laboratory 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena CA 91109, USA  
Mangrove forests are systems that provide ecosystem services and rely on floating propagules of which 
the dispersal trajectories are determined by ocean currents and winds. Quantifying connectivity of 
mangrove patches is an important conservation concern. Current estimates of connectivity, however, 
fail to integrate the link between ocean currents at different spatial scales and dispersal trajectories. 
Here, we use high-resolution estimates of ocean currents and surface winds from meteorological and 
oceanographic analyses, in conjunction with experimental data on propagule traits (e.g., density, size 
and shape) and dispersal vector properties (e.g., strength and direction of water and wind currents). We 
incorporate these data in a dispersal model to illustrate the potential effect of wind on dispersal 
trajectories of hydrochorous propagules from different mangrove species. We focus on the Western 
Indian Ocean, including the Mozambique Channel, which has received much attention because of its 
reported oceanic complexity, to illustrate the effect of oceanic features such as eddy currents and 
tides. In spite of the complex pattern of ocean surface currents and winds, some propagules are able 
to cross the Mozambique Channel. Eddy currents and tides may delay arrival at a suitable site. 
Experimentally demonstrated differences in wind sensitivity among propagule types were shown to 
affect the probability of departure and the shape of dispersal trajectories. The model could be used to 
reconstruct current fluxes of mangrove propagules that may help explain past and current 
distributions of mangrove forests and assess the potential for natural expansion of these forests. 
 
Keywords: connectivity; eddy currents; long distance dispersal; Mozambique Channel; tidal motion; 
Western Indian Ocean  


Modeling mangrove propagule dispersal trajectories using high-resolution estimates of ocean surface winds and currents

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