Whelan, Joe

Cork Open Research Archive

UCC Library and UCC researchers have made this item openly available.Please let us know how this has helped you. Thanks!Title 'People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits our economy'Author(s) Whelan, JoePublication date 2020-05-06Original citation Whelan, J. (2020) ''People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits oureconomy'', RTÉ Brainstorm, 6 May. Available at:https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0506/1136736-emigration-ireland-coronavirus/ (Accessed: 2 October 2020)Type of publication Contribution to newspaper/magazineLink to publisher'sversionhttps://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0506/1136736-emigration-ireland-coronavirus/Access to the full text of the published version may require asubscription.Rights © 2020, RTÉ Brainstorm; Joe Whelan. This article is made availableunder a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs3.0 Ireland (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IE) license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ie/Item downloadedfromhttp://hdl.handle.net/10468/10621Downloaded on 2021-11-27T11:18:54Z25/09/2020 'People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits our economy'https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0506/1136736-emigration-ireland-coronavirus/ 1/5Updated / Wednesday, 6 May 2020 12:33Opinion: economic migration from Ireland is unlikely to be an option in a world wheremovement is greatly restrictedIn times of crisis, Ireland has always been able to rely on the safety valve provided byemigration to help ease the burden on the infrastructure of the state. Indeed, Irish history ispeppered with periods of intense emigration. During the Great Famine of 1845-1849, over amillion people left Ireland to escape hunger and destitution.But we do not need to go so far back. Indeed, we need only conjure a time still fresh in thememory to  nd an example of when emigration acted a safety valve for the state and, at thesame time, a painful schism for many families. In the wake of the last economic downturn, many thousands of Irish people, along with peopleof other nationalities living here, began a period of intense outward migration. Between April2008 and April 2009, CSO  gures show that emigration began in earnest, increasing by 40%from 45,300 to 65,100.'People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits our economy'"This is what makes the current situation so very different and potentially hugely problematic"25/09/2020 'People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits our economy'https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0506/1136736-emigration-ireland-coronavirus/ 2/5"We can't all live on a small island". From RTÉ News Archive, a report on criticism of Ministerof Foreign Affairs, Brian Lehihan, over his remarks on emigration in 1987Over the next 12 months, overall emigration remained constant and emigration among Irishnationals increased signi cantly going from 18,400 in April 2009 to 27,700 in the twelvemonths to April 2010. The following year, emigration among Irish nationals continued toincrease sharply going from 27,700 to 40,200 over the 12 months to April 2011. It grew againin the twelve months to April 2012 and again in the twelve months to April 2013. It was notuntil 2014 that we began to see a decrease in outward migration.This shows that Ireland experienced a steady flow of outward migration during the last periodof economic crisis for a period of over  ve years. What is crucially important to understandabout these  gures is that the majority of those emigrating encapsulated age ranges wherepeople are most actively engaged in the labour market. Put another way, these were workerswho were leaving to  nd employment.If we take 2012 as just one example of this, the age range accounting for the largest group ofemigrants were those aged 24 to 44 at 39.5%. The next largest group were those aged 15 to24 at 35.8%. Taken together then, those aged between 15 and 44 accounted for 75.3% of allthose who emigrated from Ireland in the twelve months to April 2012. Unsurprisingly, the datafor all the years during which emigration was trending upward shows similar majorities.03:1625/09/2020 'People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits our economy'https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0506/1136736-emigration-ireland-coronavirus/ 3/5From RTÉ Radio One's Morning Ireland, Jackie Fox reports on the 121,000 trades people whoemigrated from Ireland after losinh their jobs during the economic crash This tells us that people leave Ireland when a crisis in our economy occurs. It also tells us thata majority of the people who leave are those most likely to be engaged in the labour market.They are a workforce, able to make use of the global labour market. When they do this, theyrelieve the pressure on the state which no longer has to support them via welfareinfrastructure, and which may, in fact, bene t through their remittances.But this is what makes the current situation so very different and potentially hugelyproblematic. In a world where movement is greatly restricted, the usual safety valve ofrelieving pressure through high levels of economic migration is unlikely to be an option. Inrespect to how things currently stand, the  gures for March 2020 show that unemploymenthas risen from 5.4% to 16.5%, when adjusted to take account of those who have becomeunemployed as a result of the crisis:This rate will have risen since these  gures were released. The latest Government DraftStability Programme is predicting a peak rate of 22% unemployment, peaking in the secondquarter of the year before gradually reducing as containment measures are eased. Of course,this is an employment forecast made in a painfully uncertain political and economic climatewith much more guesswork involved than usual.06:3525/09/2020 'People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits our economy'https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0506/1136736-emigration-ireland-coronavirus/ 4/5If we look again at the March  gures, we see that in real terms, more than 513,000 peoplewere registered for support.Again, this  gure has since increased to the point of doubling. The Government's most recentworking paper on how the labour market has been impacted suggests that there were morethan 1.1m persons in receipt of State support interventions to the labour market by the weekending April 24th This comprised those on the Live Register and those in receipt of thePandemic Unemployment Payment and the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme. The latter twogroups accounted for approximately 920,000 workers availing of state support.What these  gures do not show is the age range of those currently in reliance on governmentsupport. However, early estimates tell a familiar story. CSO  gures for the new COVID-19Adjusted Measure of Unemployment indicate a rate of 34.0% for those aged 15 to 24 yearsand 14.1% for those aged 25 to 74 years. This indicates that approximately 48.1% of thosecurrently reliant on government support are aged between 15 and 74.Once re ned further, these  gures will likely show decreases around the margins andincreases to the core working-age group.  Again, the Government's most recent working paperon labour market disruption further bears this out by suggesting that those who have lost theirjobs as a result of the impact of Covid-19 are more likely to be younger workers:25/09/2020 'People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits our economy'https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0506/1136736-emigration-ireland-coronavirus/ 5/5So where does that leave us? Essentially, a huge proportion of our workforce are now relianton the infrastructure of the Irish welfare state. Were it permitted, history tells us that aproportion of this displaced workforce would potentially emigrate. At present, this is not anoption. We can't export our "problem" this time, meaning we now have a substantial workforcethat must continue to be supported domestically.In the short term, the response has been to create a two-tier welfare system; with one groupof welfare recipients receiving a rate far above that of another. This too is unsustainable whilealso being inequitable. Furthermore, the twelve weeks that the emergency payment measuresare scheduled to last is quickly running out.On the basis that the crisis is unlikely to be over by then, radical ideas are needed. Thegovernment needs to begin to look at a range of measures such as universal basic income,reduced working weeks and job-sharing and at how these can be introduced in an equitableand sustainable way. Whatever happens, there is little point in waiting for a proportion of ourworkforce to simply turn out the light. This time, nobody's leaving.The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the viewsof RTÉArticle printed from RTE.ie

'People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits our economy'

https://cora.ucc.ie/bitstream/10468/10621/1/People%20usually%20leave.pdf

'People usually leave Ireland when a crisis hits our economy'

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Cork Open Research Archive