Kleczkowski, Adam

Maharaj, Savi

Rasmussen, Susan

Williams, Lynn

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     I. INTRODUCTION Existing epidemiological models have largely tended to neglect the impact of individual behaviour on the dynamics of diseases. However, awareness of the presence of illness can cause people to change their behaviour by, for example, staying at home and avoiding social contacts [2, 6-8]. Such changes can be used to control epidemics but they exact an economic cost [3]. We present results from a study that involved mathematical modelling, computer science and health psychology [5]. In our model, disease spread is controlled by allowing susceptible individuals to temporarily reduce their social contacts in response to the presence of infection within their local neighbourhood. We ascribe an economic cost to the loss of social contacts, and weigh this against the economic benefit gained by reducing the impact of the epidemic. We designed and carried out a series of experiments involving participants playing a computer game in which they could respond to epidemic threats by changing their behavior [1,4]. These choices were fed into a simulation model which updated the threats in response to participant actions. The experimental setup involved participatory simulation [9] using a back-end agent-based simulation model implemented in NetLogo [10]. The results show that participants responded to increasing infection load in their local neighbourhood by reducing their social contacts, as they would be expected to do in reality. There was a large variability in their response, both among the participants and within each game. We used an agent based model to scale up from the individual to the population behaviour. We show that the most common response was to maximize the individual gains by attempting to remain uninfected for as long as possible. However, this individual behaviour leads to a high level of disease prevalence at the population level. REFERENCES [1] Liam Delaney, Adam Kleczkowski, Savi Maharaj, Susan Rasmussen, Lynn Williams: Reflections on a Virtual Experiment Addressing Human Behavior During Epidemics. Summer Computer Simulation Conference, 2013. ACM Digital Library. [2] Jones, JH; Salathé, M. 2009. “Early Assessment of Anxiety and Behavioral Response to Novel Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1)”, PLoS ONE, 4(12): e8032. [3] Maharaj, S and Kleczkowski, A (2012). Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: do it well or not at all. BMC Public Health 08/2012; 12(1):679. [4] Maharaj, S; McCaldin, T; Kleczkowski. 2011. “A Participatory Simulation Model for Studying Attitudes to Infection Risk”, Summer Computer Simulation Conference 2011, ACM Digital Library. [5] Rogers, RW (1975) “A Protection Motivation Theory of Fear Appeals and Attitude Change”, Journal of Psychology, 91. [6] Lau, JTF; Tsui, H; Lau, M; Yang, X. 2004. “SARS Transmission, Risk Factors, and Prevention in Hong Kong”. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2004 April; 10(4). [7] Rubin, GK; Amlôt, R; Page, L; Wessely, S. 2009. “Public perceptions, anxiety, and behavior change in relation to the swine flu outbreak”, BMJ 2009; 339:b2651, doi: 10.1136/bmj.b2651 [8] Sadique, MZ; Edmunds, WJ; Smith, RD; Meerding, WJ; de Zwart, O; Brug, J; Beutels, P. 2007. “Precautionary Behavior in Response to Perceived Threat of Pandemic Influenza”, Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(9). [9] Wilensky, U; Stroup, W. 1999. “Learning through Participatory Simulations”, Computer Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL ’99). 1999. [10] W Wilensky, U., 1999. NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/ Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.    Behavioural Responses to Epidemics: Report from a Virtual Experiment (poster)  Savi Maharaj Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, Scotland, UK savi@cs.stir.ac.uk Adam Kleczkowski Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, Scotland, UK ak@cs.stir.ac.uk  Susan Rasmussen Psychology, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK s.a.rasmussen@strath.ac.uk Lynn Williams Psychology, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, UK lynn.williams@uws.ac.uk Miguel, Amblard, Barceló & Madella (eds.) Advances in Computational Social Science and Social SimulationBarcelona: Autònoma University of Barcelona, 2014, DDD repository <http://ddd.uab.cat/record/125597>

Behavioural responses to epidemics : Report from a virtual experiment (poster)

http://ddd.uab.cat/pub/poncom/2014/128677/ssc14_a2014a121iENG.pdf

Behavioural responses to epidemics : Report from a virtual experiment (poster)

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